Confirmed: No post-DNC polling bump for Biden

The campaign of Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden just got some bad news.

Real Clear Politic’s Tom Bevan pointed out on Wednesday that Biden, in recently released polls, failed to get the post-Democratic National Convention (DNC) “bump” that many were expecting him to get. 

“Heading into the Democrat convention we expected a huge surge in the polls for Joe Biden,” said a Trump campaign insider. “It didn’t happen.”

The latest

The newest polls were just released on Wednesday, and, in short, they show that the DNC had essentially no impact on the numbers.

Looking at the Real Clear Politics aggregation of polls, Biden has an 8.8 point lead over President Trump, nationally. Biden also leads Trump in the key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, by 6.7, 5.7, and 6.5, respectively.

These post-DNC numbers are just about the same as the pre-DNC numbers. This, importantly, means that Biden and the Democrats at the DNC failed to break the pre-DNC polling trend, which saw Biden’s lead slipping in a number of key swing states – including those swing states that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 after leading heavily in the polls.

In fact, according to the New York Post, some polls, including that of CNBC/Change Research, showed a two-point swing in Trump’s favor in six different swing states following the DNC. This has to be somewhat disheartening to Biden and crew considering that a post-convention bump in the polls for the former vice president would have been expected.

The RNC . . .

. . . too is in the book now, but it is just too early to know its effect on the polls. Pundits, however, are already doing some speculating, with many believing that the RNC is going to help President Trump out in the polls.

Such a suggestion was recently made by CNN’s Jake Tapper on Thursday. He predicted a “narrowing in the polls” following the RNC.

“And I think it’s important to note that I do expect there to be some sort of narrowing in the polls after this rather filtered week, but we still have many days to go and we’ll see if the president is able to stay as disciplined,” Tapper said.

Here, Tapper was referring to the fact that President Trump, during his RNC speech on Thursday night, more or less stuck to the teleprompter, which is somewhat unusual for Trump. Some have criticized the president for this, calling him “teleprompter Trump.” But, it is kind of hard to throw such stones when you have Biden reading off of a script from his basement every time we see him.

We’ll keep an eye out for those post-RNC polling numbers.

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