If a new poll is right, then Gavin Newsom’s days as the governor of California really might be numbered.
This latest poll was conducted by CBS News/YouGov between August 6th and August 12th. Among other questions, 1,856 California voters were asked whether or not they believe Newsom ought to be recalled.
48 percent of participants indicated that they are in favor of Newsom’s recall, while 52 percent indicated that they are against it.
At first glance, this appears to be good news for Newsom. But, there are several reasons why it is not.
Some important points
One of the reasons why the CBS News/YouGov poll is not necessarily good news for Newsom is that the results are within the poll’s margin of error. According to the pollster, that margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points, which is the exact gap the pollster found between those who favor and those who oppose Newsom’s recall.
At the very least, this suggests that there is a serious chance that Newsom will be recalled by voters when the special election is held.
The other reason why the poll is not good news for Newsom is that, as CBS News points out, the Democrats just don’t seem to be that motivated to vote for Newsom to remain in office. The outlet reports:
Newsom’s political fate would clearly be in better shape if all registered voters turned out next month. But as of now, they don’t all plan to vote. In fact, it’s members of his own Democratic Party who are currently less motivated than Republicans to vote, setting up a high-stakes turnout and motivation contest for Newsom and the Democrats over the next month.
To reiterate, the poll finds that, if everyone shows up, there is a very real possibility that Newsom could be recalled, but many of Newsom’s supporters don’t plan on showing up. So, overall, one could interpret the poll’s results as suggesting that Newsom is more likely than not to get recalled.
Other polls would agree
As Breitbart reports, at least two other polls, so far, have suggested that Newsom could be on his way out.
One was from Emerson College, and it, like the CBS News/YouGov poll, had those who support and those who oppose Newsom’s recall within the margin of error. Another poll, by SurveyUSA, however, has Newsom losing the recall election by double digits.
So, things are not exactly looking up for Newsom and his allies, which would include the Biden administration.
The CBS News/YouGov poll found that if Newsom is recalled, conservative Larry Elder is favored to replace him. Elder, though, is one of some 46 candidates, and 25 percent of voters indicated that, as of yet, they are “undecided” on who they would want to replace Newsom.