POLL: Biden is not the Democrats’ overwhelming favorite for the 2024 primary

The Democrats’ 2024 problem is growing.

A new poll indicates that Democratic voters would neither strongly unite behind President Joe Biden nor behind Vice President Kamala Harris in the Democrats’ 2024 primary. 

The numbers

This poll was conducted by the Trafalgar Group from April 30th through May 6th. The pollster surveyed 1,574 likely primary or general election voters. For the purposes of this article, we are going to focus on only those likely Democrat primary voters that the Trafalgar Group surveyed.

Here’s what the pollster asked these voters: “What best describes what you would most likely do if Joe Biden were to run for re-election in the 2024 Democratic Presidential Primary?”

36.7 percent of these likely Democrat primary voters said that they would “absolutely vote for Biden,” while 20.7 percent said that they would “likely [vote] for Biden.” That’s a total of 57.4 percent, to emphasize, of likely Democrat primary voters.

5.2 percent said that they would be “unlikely to vote for Biden” an 16.9 percent that they would be “very unlikely to vote for Biden,” while 6.7 percent were “undecided,” and 5.8 percent said that they wouldn’t vote in that primary.

When asked who they would vote for in the primary other than Biden, the only candidate who beat out “someone else” was Harris, who received 41.3 percent of the vote. Then, 26 percent went to “someone else,” 9.3 to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg,” 8.0 to Tep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and the remainder is distributed among other well-known Democrats.

Looking ahead

What is in the making, here, is a situation in which neither the sitting president nor the vice president is a strong presidential candidate for the next election.

According to FiveThirtyEight, President Biden’s approval rating is somewhere around 53 percent, with about 41 percent disapproving of his performance.

And, recent polls have indicated that Vice President Harris is one of the least popular vice presidents in recent memory. YouGov, for example, found that Harris was viewed unfavorably by 48 percent of American adults, including 84 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of Independents.

Republicans, on the other hand, have at least two strong 2024 candidates in former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R).

Polls have consistently indicated that Trump remains as popular as ever with his base and that DeSantis would likely be the frontrunner should Trump choose not to run.

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