Breitbart reports that House Republicans could gain as many as seven seats as a result of redistricting following the 2020 Census.
The comes after the Census Bureau, on Thursday, released its final report of the 2020 Census.
What’s going on?
According to the U.S. Constitution, the federal government has to conduct a census once every ten years. This census helps to make sure that citizens across the United States are equally represented.
The representation that a state receives in Congress is directly tied to its population, which is why Texas, for example, has more representatives than Rhode Island. The end goal is to make sure that each U.S. representative represents, as closely as possible, the same number of Americans. So, even though Texas has more representatives than Rhode Island, a Texas representative and a Rhode Island representative represent the same number of people.
This is why the census takes place once every ten years. It keeps tabs on the population to ensure that everyone is represented. When the census finds that population changes have taken place, then congressional district lines have to be redrawn. And, this is what is about to happen.
The 2020 Census
Based on the findings of the 2020 Census, redistricting will take place in 44 states. And, at least at the moment, it would appear that Republicans are going to have the upper hand.
The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wassermen provided a “current outlook” following the Census Bureough’s latest report. He writes that the outlook is “a GOP gain of 0-7 House seats from redistricting alone, w/ a high initial degree of uncertainty.”
To put this into perspective, if redistricting were to happen tomorrow and if Republicans got all seven of those House seats, then Republicans would take back control of the House, with a five-member lead. Republicans, in fact, only need five seats to retake the House, and, even without redistricting, they are already favored to gain those five seats in the upcoming mid-term elections.
One thing to point out is that the actual data upon which redistricting will be based will not be released until the fall. So, there is always the possibility that something could change between then and now.
But, at the moment, Republicans do appear to have the advantage.
In 20 of the 44 states where redistricting will occur, Republicans control the state legislatures. Only eight are controlled by Democrats. The remaining 16 are either split or have independent commissions.
So, things are definitely looking up for Republicans. But, with regard to redistricting, we ought to expect a big fight from the Democrats.