A new report shows that Republicans have every chance to win back the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022.
This week, the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) released a new report showing that Republicans have 47 opportunities to take House seats away from the Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections.
It’s more than doable
“House Republicans need just 5 seats to retake the majority, and with 7 Trump seats held by Democrats and 24 Democrats who got 52% or less last election, the list of 47 speaks to the difficult task ahead for Democrats in 2022,” the report reads.
The report goes on to present opportunities in rural and working-class districts, such as Reps. Ron Kind (D-WI-03), Jared Golden (D-ME-02), and Matt Cartwright (D-PA-08).
The CLF also argues that there are suburban districts that “will flip” Republican in 2022 and that there are going to be House vacancies that will be tough for Democrats to hold, such as Iowa’s 3rd district, Ohio’s 13th district, and Pennsylvania’s 17th district.
Some of the Democrats’ problems
In its three-page report, the CLF highlights several reasons why the Democrats are going to have a difficult time maintaining their lead in the House in 2022.
One reason is that some of their voters are abandoning them. The CLF pointed to Latino and Asian voters in particular, citing the 2020 election.
Another problem for the Democrats, perhaps even more important, according to the CLF, is that they have the wrong message.
“Americans are getting their first taste of life under total Democrat control in Washington in a decade,” the report reads. “It’s not what they ordered. From pushing working-class families out of jobs with fracking bans and pipeline cancellations to keeping schools closed, and hijacking COVID relief for a trillion-dollar progressive wish list, the Biden Administration has proven it will cave to the socialist left at every turn.”
This strategy in combination with the Democrats’ other strategy, namely, referring to all Trump supporters as extremists, isn’t going to get the job done in 2022, the CFL argues.
“History is on our side”
Lastly, the CLF points out that “since WWII, first-term presidents have lost 27 seats on average in their first midterm.” In fact, there have only been two occasions in the last century in which a first-term president gained seats in the House at the midterm.
Currently, Democrats have a 221 to 211 lead in the House. Republicans would need a net gain of five to take back over. If the CLF is right, then the odds certainly appear to be in the Republicans’ favor.