Trump 2020 believes it can turn Nevada red this November

Trump 2020 sees the possibility of turning another typically blue state red this November.

Fox News reports that President Donald Trump and his campaign team now believe that it is possible to win Nevada.  

Really?!

President Trump has been rallying hard in Nevada, despite Gov. Steve Sisolak’s (D) coronavirus orders. Trump 2020 claims that it has made more than 2.5 million voter contacts in Nevada this election cycle, holding all kinds of events, including some in which they have registered voters.

Clearly, it seems that Trump 2020 believes that Nevada is in play. In fact, the president has said as much.

“Fifty-two days from now, we’re going to win Nevada, and then we’re going to win another four years,” Trump said.

Samantha Zager, the Trump campaign’s deputy national press secretary put out a similar message. “President Trump has spent his first term delivering wins for the Silver State, and with a campaign that’s had a permanent presence in Nevada for years, the president has all the momentum heading into November,” she said.

Some facts

There is no doubt that Trump winning Nevada would be an upset. He lost the state back in 2016 to Hillary Clinton by 2.4 percentage points.

No Republican presidential candidate, in fact, has won Nevada since 2004, when former President George Bush managed to take the state’s six Electoral College votes. Other Republicans, including Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) and the late Sen. John McCain (R-AR), didn’t even bother having a go at Nevada during their presidential runs.

Although Nevada is fairly blue, it is the state’s independents who usually decide to which candidate the state’s Electoral College votes go. This was the point that University of Nevada, Reno, Professor Christina Ladam recently made to Fox

“As of August, there are more than 90,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state. That said, there are over 390,000 Nevadans registered as nonpartisan,” Ladam said. “This suggests that is a pretty large number of voters up for grabs.”

It is these independents that Trump 2020 is targeting. And, given what we have seen in Nevada, particularly with Democratic leadership’s mishandling of the coronavirus, the president thinks he has a pretty good chance to take the state.

RealClearPolitics has Biden leading in Nevada, on average, by 6.5 percentage points. Still, it appears that we can add Nevada to the list of states to keep an eye on in the upcoming election.

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