A recent Pew Research poll carried out among 7,500 registered voters between August 5 and August 11 found Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by a single point in the national popular vote.

Yet the survey also showed Trump winning among a key demographic, something which could hurt the vice president's chances. 

Slight differences in enthusiasm levels among Trump and Harris supporters

According to the poll, each candidate enjoys similar enthusiasm levels among his or her supporters, with 72% of Trump voters indicating that they are "extremely motivated" to cast a ballot compared with 70% Harris backers who say the same.

National poll by @pewresearch

🟦 Harris: 46%
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
🟪 Other: 1%
——
• Male: Trump 49-44%
• Female: Harris 49-42%
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• Ages 18-29: Harris 57-29%
• Ages 30-49: Harris 45-43%
• Ages 50-64: Trump 49-44%
• Ages 65+: Trump 51-45%
---
• White: Trump 52-41%… pic.twitter.com/egLXuX2xhz

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 14, 2024

Yet the survey did find significant differences when it comes to what sort of voter is excited about voting for Trump or Harris.

Specifically, Harris' younger voters are much more enthused about backing her than Trump's young supporters are about voting for him.

Those who are "extremely motivated" to vote for Trump tend to be older

Whereas 61% of Harris voters aged 18 to 29 are "extremely motivated" to turn out in November, just 42% of Trump voters in the same age bracket have similar feelings.

What's more, the vice president enjoys a much smaller three-point enthusiasm gap among voters who are between the ages of 30 and 49.

However, Trump has a five-point enthusiasm advantage with voters who are aged 50 to 64 and is one point ahead in enthusiasm with those who are 65 or older.

A similar picture emerges when overall levels of support are broken down by age, as Trump is winning voters over 65 by six points and is ahead by five points with those who are between 50 and 64.

Meanwhile, Harris has a massive 18-point lead with voters under 30 and modest two-point lead among those who are between 30 and 49.

Census data shows voter turnout rates vary widely among age groups

Those numbers may prove to be significant, as older voters are far more likely to actually show up on election day than younger ones are.

Data published by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that 74.5% of people who are over 65 and eligible to vote did so in 2020, while 71% of eligible voters between the ages of 45 and 64 also cast a ballot.

Meanwhile, only 51.4% of eligible voters under 25 turned out in 2020, as did 61.6 of those who were between 25 and 45 years of age.