Well-known pollster says RFK's endorsement of Trump could be a game changer

By 
 August 25, 2024

Frank Luntz, the well-known pollster, believes that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.s endorsement of former President Donald Trump could be a game changer in the upcoming presidential election. 

According to The Hill, Luntz said as much during an appearance, on Friday, on NewsNation's On Balance. 

This comes as some on the political left are trying to claim that Kennedy's endorsement of Trump is irrelevant.

It also comes with early voting in the 2024 presidential election about to begin.

Background

One of the biggest news items of last week was Kennedy's decision to end his run, as an independent candidate, for the 2024 presidential election and his decision to declare his support for another Trump presidency.

The Washington Examiner reports:

Kennedy will stay on the ballot in a number of reliably blue or red states but has already begun to remove his name from the battlegrounds that will swing the election, including Arizona and Pennsylvania. He noted his disagreement with Trump on some issues but told reporters that, on balance, he supports the former president over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Kennedy, to demonstrate his sincere support of Trump, even participated in a campaign event - alongside Trump - that took place last week in Arizona.

During his speech, according to the Examiner, he spoke about his "growing disenchantment" with the Democratic Party. He also criticized Vice President Kamala Harris for numerous things, including her lack of transparency with the press.

The big question now is what effect Kennedy's decision to drop out of the running and support Trump will have on the outcome of the election.

Here's one possibility:

Luntz, based on the data that he has been seeing, believes that Kennedy's endorsement of Trump could help him to win several important battleground states in the upcoming election.

"It’s probably worth about 1 percent for Trump and that 1 percent could be everything if it’s in the swing states," Luntz said.

He added:

In the end, the reason why Kennedy was drawing 10, 12, even as high as 14 percent is because he was taking votes away from Joe Biden. Joe Biden’s gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and [Kennedy’s] vote collapsed down to about 4 or 5 percent and what’s left is a Trump vote. Some of them are simply not going to participate in November, roughly two to one, the ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris, and that’s worth a single percent, and a single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

It has to be said that there is widespread distrust about recent polling that has shown Harris leading Trump in the general election, including in the majority of swing states.

Suffice it to say that the Trump campaign - among many others - do not believe that this polling is accurate.

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