Most surveys put Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump, with a polling aggregate maintained by Real Clear Politics giving her a 1.8% lead in the national popular vote.

Yet despite this, one Democrat-leaning pollster recently suggested that Trump could be on track for an Electoral College victory. 

Model gives Trump an almost 60% chance of winning

According to The Washington Times, Nate Silver announced in a Substack post on Thursday that his election forecast model gives Trump a 58.2% chance of winning in November versus 41.6% for Harris.

The Times pointed out that this represents a significant change from just one week prior, when the model put Trump's likelihood of success at just 52.4%.

"The forecast is still in toss-up range," Silver acknowledged before adding that "Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30," which was one day before the Democratic National Convention (DNC) began.

"There's room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately," he went on to stress.

Harris appears to be struggling in Michigan and Pennsylvania

Silver later explained in a post on X that his decision to raise Trump's odds is largely tied to problems the vice president is seeing in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris.

National polls and polls of other swing states mostly decent for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts a lot in the model. pic.twitter.com/100ztjzkRq

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 4, 2024

"In PA, our polling averages had Harris +1.8 pre-DNC, but it's now Harris +1.0. That's before any convention bounce adjustment, which is implemented at a later stage of the model," he noted.

What's more, the pollster pointed out that Harris appears to be on a downward trajectory in Michigan, as she went from holding a 3.1% edge prior to the DNC to a 1.9% advantage this week.

Trump adviser says Harris is alienating Jewish and Muslim voters

Meanwhile, senior Trump campaign adviser Stephen Miller speculated that Harris' problems in Michigan and Pennsylvania are tied to events in the Middle East.

Specifically, he pointed to Michigan's large Muslim population, many of whom are dissatisfied with how the Biden administration has handled the conflict in Gaza.

Miller also alluded to Harris' decision to select Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate rather than Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate, a move some observers attributed to the latter's Jewish heritage.

"The most amazing thing about this election is that Muslims are going to sit out Michigan and Jews are going to sit out Pennsylvania because Harris can't take a single moral stance on any of this," Miller wrote in an X post.