DANIEL VAUGHAN: Israel Shock Strikes Give Them Advantage Over Hezbollah
Israel struck Hezbollah twice by triggering a wave of explosions across pagers, radios, and other electronic equipment. And then, when Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, tried giving a speech on the attacks, Israel sent a wave of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon. It seems clear at this point that Israel is softening up Hezbollah for a larger conflict.
Israel's attack effectively crippled Hezbollah. The pager and walkie-talkie attack alone killed 37 and injured nearly 3,000 more members of the terrorist organization. The Wall Street Journal noted, "The attack was one of the worst security breaches in the organization's history and struck a blow to the group's internal communications—both by destroying the devices and by causing members to doubt the security of their own networks."
Hezbollah wasn't alone. Qatar Airways put out an urgent message to all flyers: "Effective immediately: Following the directive received from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation of the Republic of Lebanon, all passengers flying from Beirut Rafic Harirl International Airport (BEY) are prohibited from carrying pagers and walkie-talkies on board flights. The ban applies to both checked and carry-on luggage, as well as cargo, and will be enforced until further notice."
Qatar is one of Hezbollah and Hamas's critical allies, as they work with Iran to flow into the region. Hamas leadership travels to and from Qatar regarding negotiations with Israel and other events. They live in luxury while complaining about Palestinians. Qatar Airways is now tacitly admitting that it's shuttling Hezbollah members around, and that's a massive risk.
In three swift attacks, Israel crippled Hezbollah's communications technology, made them distrust all remaining technology in their possession, questioned how to get new technology, dropped an airstrike on Hezbollah's head during an important speech, and made them distrust air travel.
These are all victories by themselves. The question is, what comes next? The Journal reports, "Less clear is whether it helps achieve Israel's larger strategic war goals of returning tens of thousands of residents to homes they fled along the border with Lebanon after Oct. 7 when the U.S.-designated terrorist organization began firing cross-border rockets. Since Israel's last war with Hezbollah in 2006, the group has also re-established itself along the Lebanese border, posing what Israel considers to be an unacceptable threat."
There's no question Israel faces a security threat from Hezbollah. Hezbollah has launched rockets non-stop into Israel from Lebanon for years. 90% of those rockets target civilian locations. Hezbollah and Hamas have similar goals, as do their Iranian overlords: killing Jews.
That's why listening to Hezbollah and Hamas supporters bellyache over the attacks is ludicrous. Hezbollah wants dead civilians every time it launches a rocket. Radio silence when that happens from them or the Hamas caucus in Congress, but when Israel strikes back, suddenly they care about civilians.
These are highly targeted strikes that crippled Hezbollah. The question is, what comes next? The easy answer is a larger conflict that seeks to uproot Hezbollah from Lebanon. That would tacitly open up two fronts, with Hamas on one side and Hezbollah on the other. While Israel is equipped to handle such a war, it's still a tall order and would need United States support.
The other quiet part behind all this is that Israel has ratcheted up its responses since Biden stepped down. For all the noise about delivering a deal with Hamas, Biden is no longer capable of doing that. It's being reported that the United States is conceding a ceasefire is impossible for Biden, especially with Hamas having no interest in negotiations.
Biden is a nonentity in the White House, leaving more space for Israel and Ukraine to respond. How far either country takes this freedom, with America distracted by the election, is anyone's guess, but things are ramping up.
Hezbollah has a decision, too. They're exposed, and their Iranian benefactors just experienced an assassination in its capital city. The entire Iranian terror network has been shaken to its core. Instead of inflicting terrorism, they are experiencing terror.
Hopefully, that's enough to cause them to back down. But even if so, it'll only be a moment in time. Hezbollah is still firing rockets at Israel, and that alone demands a response. Hezbollah could end this at any time by ending the consistent stream of terrorism it inflicts on the region.
But they won't do that, which puts the ball in Israel's court. Do they escalate further and start taking out strategic people and military targets of Hezbollah? This is the weakest Hezbollah has been in months and the most scared. The time to strike is now, and what Israel does with this advantage remains to be seen.