Post-VP debate polls show Sen. Vance with the win over Gov. Walz

By 
 October 2, 2024

The likely one and only 2024 vice presidential debate was held Tuesday night on CBS, and while VP debates typically don't have much impact on the overall presidential race, this one might be an exception to the general rule, according to BBC News.

That is because there is a good chance the 2024 election will come down to just a few tens of thousands of votes in a handful of critical states, and any edge that Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) can give to former President Donald Trump -- and likewise for Gov. Tim Walz and Vice President Kamala Harris -- could prove to be decisive.

Vance came across better on screen than Walz

According to USA Today, Sen. Vance appeared to edge out Gov. Walz during the debate when it comes to various intangibles, in that he avoided making any "verbal miscues" or "outrageous outbursts" and exhibited confidence and "poise" in his stage presence and a "command of policy."

In contrast, Walz appeared "nervous and unsure of himself," often spoke too quickly and "stumbled over his words," mixed up the Islamic Republic of Iran with the Jewish state of Israel, barely surpassed the "low expectations" set for him as a "bad debater," and even referred to himself as a "knucklehead" who gets "caught up in the rhetoric" -- a clip the Trump campaign is sure to utilize going forward.

Both of the VP candidates were compelled to defend themselves and their respective ticket heads from criticisms, and while Walz struggled mightily to do so, Vance seemed at ease and often flipped the critiques back on his opponent and VP Harris.

Vance won in most of the polls

According to ABC News and 538, multiple post-debate polls suggested the VP face-off was essentially a draw with Vance pulling slightly ahead of Walz in most surveys but remaining within the margin of error.

Indeed, a Politico poll had both candidates tied at 50%, CNN had Vance up by two over Walz, 51-49%, and CBS News placed Vance ahead by one, 42-41%, but the Daily Mail's survey had the senator out in front of the governor by seven points, 50-43%, giving the GOP candidate an average victory margin of three points.

It was duly noted, however, that these polls aren't necessarily reflective of the general electorate and instead tend to represent more politically engaged citizens who tend to skew more toward Democrats -- the sort of folks who would spend a Tuesday night watching a pair of vice presidential contenders debate each other on domestic policies.

Yet, per The Washington Post, Vance earning a draw or marginal win among such viewers is great news for him and former President Trump and could make this debate more impactful in the general election than in previous cycles.

Even more important in that regard is that, per the CNN poll, Vance defeated Walz by a wide margin among independent voters, 54-46%, who will likely be crucial in the upcoming election.

Good news for Vance

The CBS News poll had other good news for Sen. Vance, as solid majorities of viewers rated him as being generally "positive," "reasonable," and prepared to be the president, if necessary, and his favorability increased -- though viewers had similar opinions of Walz.

The real difference between the two came on the issues, as Walz was seen as better on things like abortion and healthcare while Vance prevailed on the economy and immigration.

Another key difference is that Walz was viewed as spending the majority of his time defending and explaining himself and his positions while Vance was able to devote more of his time to sharply critiquing the incumbent vice president and her plans for a four-year term.

In the end, while close, Vance was the overall winner in terms of both style and substance, and that might help boost his shared ticket with former President Trump in future polls over the coming days and weeks.

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