A new Insider Advantage poll showed former President Donald Trump two points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.

Trump had 49% in the poll, while Harris only had 47%.

The former president's numbers were found to be steady or increasing in the following demographics: independents, seniors, and African-Americans.

In other Pennsylvania voting news, recent voter registration data shows Republicans in the state registered 60,710 voters in September while Democrats registered only 25,854.

Moving right

Breitbart News previously reported that five counties out of the 67 in Pennsylvania have flipped from Democrat to Republican majorities from 2020 until now.

Those counties are Beaver, Berks, Bucks, Fayette and Luzerne. Fayette County south of Pittsburgh swung more than 15 points to an R+9.2%.

The others only had a slight Republican majority ranging from .2% to 2.5%.

Election analyst Seth Keshel noted on X that 63 of 67 Pennsylvania counties have shifted more Republican, which is encouraging for Trump's chances to win its 19 electoral votes.

PENNSYLVANIA - Change in Voter Registration by Party since 2020

63 of 67 counties shifted Republican, current as of 9/30/2024 update pic.twitter.com/1p416eBoBm

— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) October 3, 2024

As Pennsylvania goes . . .

As swing states go, Pennsylvania is probably the most important one. It has the most electoral votes, and in the last few elections it has had a larger margin of Democrat votes than other swing states.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he will no doubt win enough other swing states to get to 270 in the Electoral College.

If he doesn't win Pennslyvania, he can still get to 270 but it will be much more difficult--similar to the 2020 election, when a mere 45,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin gave Biden the path to electoral victory.

Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes in 2020, so it may still be pretty tough for Trump to win it in 2024.

Looking at the totals in Keshel's graphic, Democrats still have a 3.7% advantage in the state, even if it is down from their 7.5% advantage in 2020.

If there is a 3.8% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020, though, Trump will win the state by at least the 2% shown in the poll, since Biden only won by 1.17% in 2020.