We're under two weeks away from Election Day, early voting is in full swing, and the first glimpses of real voting data are starting to peak through. Polls are great for analysis, but they fade as we get actual votes cast. As we're getting this data, a meltdown is already occurring in the Democratic Party—the Harris campaign believes it is losing. If you're looking at actual votes, they're probably right—at least for now.

There are seven accepted battleground states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. NBC News reports that the Harris campaign's strategy to win this race is showing cracks. Regarding North Carolina, the Harris campaign privately admits, "Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away."

North Carolina and Nevada were seen as possible backup plans in case the "blue wall" states in the Midwest fall to Trump. North Carolina may no longer be an option, and according to voting data in Nevada, it may be closing, too. Jon Ralston of The Daily Indy has the best read on that state in the country, and he's reporting that Republicans hold a lead in the early vote there for the first time.

He estimates, as of Tuesday evening, October 22, that nearly a fifth of the vote is already in for Nevada. He writes, "Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here."

He also cautions that it is early, and there's no way to know how the independent voters cast their ballots. He's right. But it's also clear Republicans are banking votes in Nevada in ways they've not done since at least the Bush era.

Nevada has always been the reach state for Republicans, the hardest one to win among the modern battleground states. If Harris is already in trouble here, it signals other issues. In fact, it may even suggest that the entire Sun Belt portion of the battleground states is closing for Harris, leaving her with the only path to winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

If this is true, and Trump sweeps Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, he will have 268 electoral votes, assuming all the other states expected to go to him do. That leaves Harris with only one path: the Rust Belt.

NBC News says the Harris campaign is worried about that, too. Specifically, they believe Harris will drop at least one of those states, meaning she has to pick up electoral votes somewhere else. "There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off," said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also underscored deep concern about Michigan."

If Trump pulls Michigan out of the Midwest away from Harris, the race is over. Actually, that's true of all the Midwest states. If Harris is fading out west and in the South, she can't afford to lose anywhere else. The Harris campaign increasingly believes that's not possible. She's likely to drop one of those states, which means she has to replace those electoral votes elsewhere.

That's why Harris has campaigned so hard in Georgia and North Carolina. She must replace one of the midwestern states if she loses it. If Trump holds the Sun Belt, Harris only has one path forward.

Interestingly, Trump has one alternate path if he loses the Midwest. Veteran political journalist Mark Halperin posted in X a somewhat cryptic message: "Don't be surprised if @realDonaldTrump belts out one of the most famous Partridge Family lines of all time: Point me in the direction of Albuquerque…."

He may be referring to a poll done by KA Consulting that showed Donald Trump within three points of Harris in the state of New Mexico. Other public polls show Harris with a strong lead here, however. The theory is simple, though. If Trump sweeps the Sun Belt, it likely means he's stronger with the demographics of those regions, like Hispanics, and the working class as a whole, across all racial groups. That would make him stronger than anticipated in a state like New Mexico and its five electoral votes.

If you flip New Mexico from Harris to Trump and give Trump the Sun Belt states, he can lose all the Midwest states and still win the election. Trump would have 273 electoral votes to Harris' 265. Neither campaign has New Mexico in its sites, and there's not much polling outside these late polls. The only way for New Mexico to fall is by simply following the states around it. New Mexico has been in the winning column for Republicans in the past, so this is not a far-fetched notion.

Whether that happens or not is irrelevant. The point is this: Donald Trump has many paths to achieving 270 electoral votes. According to her campaign, Harris's winning path is shrinking. The polls are shifting against her late in the race, and the battleground states are, too.

To repeat: she can still win. If the polls are wrong about her position by around 2-3 points, well within the standard margin of error for most polls, she could easily recoup her position by Election Day and win across the board. The race is that close, and we are only seeing the first hard data showing possible trends. That could change by next week.

But for now, there's a reason the Harris campaign is panicking—they're convinced they're losing, and they're right. For Harris to win, she has to reverse current trendlines fast.