DANIEL VAUGHAN: Israel's Victory Humiliates Iran, Russia, and China
As the world watches the Iranian regime crumble, it's easy to see that they're the primary losers in this situation. There's no coming back from what Israel has done to them. However, without knowing what happens next, there is another major loser in this conflict: arms manufacturers for Russia, China, and Iran.
For decades, Russia and China supplied arms to Iran and its terrorist proxies through direct and proxy sales. Iran itself became an arms manufacturer that spread those items back to China and Russia, along with terrorist groups. All those countries have touted their capabilities versus the United States.
According to the Wall Street Journal, "Iran sold about $1 billion in weapons from March 2022 to March 2023, three times as much as the previous year, Deputy Defense Minister Mahdi Farahi said in November. In a tally that omits smuggled weapons, Iran became the world's 16th-biggest arms seller in 2022 with $123 million in exports, a jump from $20 million in 2017, when Iran was the 33rd-biggest exporter, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute."
In the span of less than 24 hours, Israel brought Iran to its knees. In the process, it ripped through Iranian air defenses and established total air dominance over the country. Videos from Iran have come out of Israeli tanker planes refueling jets deep in Iranian airspace.
It's a ridiculous show of dominance. As some analysts noted, this level of air superiority is something that Russia has failed to accomplish in several years of war in Ukraine.
Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula told The Journal, "In the case of Russia-Ukraine war, you see what happens when neither side can achieve air superiority: stalemate and devolution to attrition-based warfare ... In the case of the Israel-Iran war, it allows them unhindered freedom to attack where they possess air superiority over segments of Iran."
Israel is flying over Iran with total impunity, and the vaunted Iranian ballistic missile program has, thus far, amounted to very little. There have been tragic deaths from Iran haphazardly firing missiles into civilian areas. Still, nothing close to what they claimed could happen.
The world is watching. One of the parties trying to separate itself from this fray is China, which is trying to brag in the middle of Iran's downfall. Chinese accounts with large followings were claiming that Iran would still be standing had it only used Chinese aircraft and military equipment.
China has to point to how its equipment was used in the conflict between Pakistan and India because they don't have much else to praise. For all the chest-beating over Pakistan, the reality is much less clear. Pakistan scored early wins, surprising India. However, that evaporated quickly:
However, these tactics stop working when surprise is lost. Chauhan told the Singapore media that, over the next three days, the [Indian Air Force] established a decisive air superiority over the [Pakistani Air Force]. By May 10, the attrition suffered by Pakistani ground stations, bases, and radar facilities caused Pakistan's director general of military operations (DGMO) to offer a ceasefire.
Both sides claimed victory, but Pakistan's claims seem less convincing than those of India.
Iran is even ordering materials from China to construct its ballistic missiles, some of those orders coming this month. China can't claim any victories from those orders, either.
China faces another stark reality in the aftermath of Iran's downfall: its circle of allies is vanishingly small. Iran, as we know it, is exiting the world stage. Russia's military is struggling to obtain any victory in Ukraine despite having advantages in nearly every category. China's failure to manage the COVID-19 outbreak left the world livid at it.
In just a few short months of the Trump administration, the vaunted China-Russia alliance is in tatters. Russia is limping along as Trump's push to crush oil prices has cratered the economy. And China is standing alone in a world that is increasingly aligned against it in trade negotiations.
As I've written a few times, we're heading into a new world. The United States is currently heavily focused on the Middle East, which is dangerous for our issues in the Pacific. However, we do have something new emerging, and it's worth nurturing.
The problem for Russia and China is that the new world emerging from this harms their power. Russia has been unable to intervene at all regarding Iran. For all the friendly press conferences and phone calls Putin has made, he remains powerless. China is standing by idly, too.
The World War Three doom and gloom mindset is getting wrecked. If you believed Israel engaging Iran would bring in everyone else, you missed. In fact, not only did that not happen, you'd be hard-pressed to say Iran is even engaged in this conflict. Iran is the team getting blown out by 100 points at halftime and bragging about making a first down.
It's over. Israel won.
Israel's victory destroyed Iran and humiliated the Russians and Chinese. That's a victory for America.