Hold onto your hats, folks—Texas politics just got a fresh jolt of drama with a surprising early lead in the Democratic Senate primary.

A recent survey from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center reveals U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, surging ahead of State Rep. James Talarico, D-Round Rock, by 8 points among likely Democratic primary voters, mere days after her campaign launch, KXAN reported. 

Crockett threw her hat into the ring on a Monday, wasting no time in making waves.

Crockett's Rapid Rise in Polls

By the next day, pollsters were already dialing up 1,600 likely Democratic voters, wrapping up their survey in just three days.

The results, dropped on a Friday morning, show Crockett commanding 51% support compared to Talarico’s 43%, with a tight margin of error at plus or minus 2.45%.

That’s a eyebrow-raising gap for someone who just stepped into the race, especially in a state where Democrats often struggle to ignite their base.

Demographic Divides Shape the Race

Dig into the numbers, and Crockett’s strength shines among women (57% to 36%), older voters over 55 (59% to 34%), and Black voters (a whopping 89% to 8%).

Talarico, meanwhile, holds his own with white voters (53% to 40%), men (52% to 42%), and Latino voters (51% to 41%), while dominating the under-34 crowd at 63% to 34%.

But here’s the kicker: 21% of voters don’t know enough about Talarico to form an opinion, compared to just 6% for Crockett, hinting at a visibility problem he’ll need to fix fast.

Voter Familiarity and Strategic Challenges

Strikingly, nearly half of Black voters—47%—are unfamiliar with Talarico, which could spell trouble given Crockett’s near-total lock on that demographic.

When asked who’s better at rallying the Democratic base for the general election ahead, 53% picked Crockett over Talarico’s 34%, showing her knack for energizing the party faithful.

Yet, 58% believe Talarico is the stronger bet for swaying Republican-leaning Texans, compared to just 29% for Crockett—a classic conservative concern about whether Democrats can appeal beyond their echo chamber.

Campaign Strategies at Odds

Crockett’s camp is crowing about her base-mobilizing mojo, with the congresswoman stating, “The Texas Southern poll illustrates that voters know what I know: that I’m in the best position to mobilize voters who’ve been overlooked.”

But let’s be real—focusing on low-turnout voters often means ignoring the moderates and independents who might actually tip a Texas election, a state not exactly known for progressive landslides.

Talarico’s team counters with optimism, as a spokesman noted, “While many voters are still learning about James, he starts out very competitive.” Nice spin, but with only 81 days until the primary, “competitive” won’t cut it if voters don’t even know who he is—time to crank up the name recognition.