In a stunning turn of events, murders across 35 major U.S. cities plummeted by 21% in 2025, marking a historic shift in crime trends.

According to data reviewed by Axios, this decline represents the largest one-year drop on record and could signal the lowest homicide rate since 1900, with 31 of the 35 cities reporting fewer homicides, while the national murder rate is projected to near 4.0 per 100,000 people when finalized FBI data is released later this year.

Critics and supporters alike are grappling with what—or who—deserves credit for this dramatic reversal from the violent crime surge seen during the COVID era.

Historic Crime Decline Shocks Analysts

Beyond homicides, the Council on Criminal Justice data shows 11 of 13 tracked crime categories dropped in 2025 compared to 2024, with nine falling by at least 10%, according to Newsmax.

Notable decreases include a 22% drop in gun assaults, a 23% reduction in robberies, and a 9% decline in aggravated assaults, though drug-related crimes rose by 7%.

City-level data paints a vivid picture—Denver, Washington, D.C., and Omaha, Nebraska, each saw murders fall by 40% or more, while Little Rock, Arkansas, bucked the trend with a 16% increase.

Trump Claims Victory on Safety

President Donald Trump has not hesitated to tie this crime drop to his law-and-order policies, including plans to deploy National Guard troops to predominantly Democrat-run cities and linking public safety to immigration enforcement.

A White House spokesperson told Axios, “Whether it be deporting criminal illegal aliens, supporting law enforcement officers, or finally being tough on criminals, the Trump Administration has employed a whole-of-government approach to drive down crime and make communities safer.”

That’s a bold claim, but let’s be honest—after years of soft-on-crime approaches in some circles, a firm hand might just be what turned the tide, even if the jury’s still out on the data.

Critics Question Policy Impact

Not everyone is ready to hand Trump the laurels, as critics point out that violent crime had already hit a two-decade low during President Joe Biden’s final year in office.

Crime experts also warn that multiple factors could be at play, making it tricky to pin the decline on any single agenda or leader.

“It's extremely difficult to disentangle and pinpoint what's actually driving the drop,” said Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, in a statement that reminds us correlation isn’t causation.

Debating Causes Amid Progress

Sure, Gelb has a point—crime stats aren’t a simple puzzle to solve—but when policies shift toward stronger enforcement, it’s hard to ignore the timing of this historic dip.

Still, with cities like Jackson, Mississippi, and Birmingham, Alabama—both with high murder rates per capita in 2024—not included in this data, we’re missing pieces of the full picture.

Whatever the cause, families in safer neighborhoods aren’t complaining, and if tough policies keep pushing numbers down without trampling rights, that’s a win worth celebrating while the debate rages on.