A former FBI agent and NewsNation contributor now says law enforcement has known from the start that 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie was kidnapped for ransom, and that her abductors sent notes to the family knowing full well the FBI would never recommend payment without proof she was still alive.

Jennifer Coffindaffer, the former agent, wrote on X on Sunday, April 12 that the motive behind the disappearance of Savannah Guthrie's mother was never a mystery to investigators.

Coffindaffer's post was blunt. She wrote that law enforcement "said they know the motive for the abduction of Nancy and they have known it from the beginning." The motive, she said: "Kidnapping for Ransom. Nancy sadly died." She added that "the kidnappers didn't care and tortured the family [with 2 notes] knowing the FBI would not recommend paying a ransom without proof of life."

If accurate, the claim paints a grim picture, not just of the crime itself, but of a case that has dragged on for more than two months with no arrests, no named suspects, and an 84-year-old woman still unaccounted for.

What investigators have said, and what they haven't

Coffindaffer's statements align, at least in broad strokes, with what Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos said publicly in March. Nanos told reporters his department believed the abduction was targeted: "We believe we know why he did this and we believe that it was targeted." But he stopped short of full certainty. "We're not 100 percent sure of that, so it would be silly to tell people, 'Yeah, don't worry about it. You're not his target.'"

That careful hedging has been a hallmark of the investigation. Authorities have released fragments of information, a suspect description, doorbell camera footage, evidence of forced entry, while keeping the public largely in the dark about who took Nancy Guthrie and why.

The AP News timeline of the case confirmed that authorities treated Nancy's disappearance as a likely abduction early on. Investigators found signs of forced entry at her Catalina Foothills home near Tucson. DNA testing determined that blood found on the front porch belonged to Nancy. Doorbell-camera footage showed an armed suspect tampering with the camera. None of it has led to an arrest.

Nancy was last seen on January 31, after her daughter Annie Guthrie and son-in-law Tommaso Cioni dropped her off at home. The next morning, she failed to show up to watch a streaming church service with a friend. Her family raised the alarm.

Since then, the family has endured not only the anguish of a missing loved one but reckless public speculation about whether they were somehow involved. Sheriff Nanos shut that down directly.

Family cleared, but questions mount

The Washington Examiner reported that the Pima County Sheriff's Department formally cleared all of Nancy Guthrie's siblings and their spouses as suspects. Nanos said the family "has been nothing but cooperative and gracious and are victims in this case." Investigators also disclosed they were reviewing Walmart sales records tied to clothing and a backpack matching the suspect seen in doorbell footage, and analyzing a glove found near Guthrie's home for possible DNA evidence.

That glove and the Walmart lead represent some of the few tangible investigative threads the public has been told about. The recovery of the glove near the home coincided with the surfacing of a third ransom note, adding another layer to a case already tangled in confusion over who was sending the notes and whether any of them were genuine.

Savannah Guthrie, 54, has made multiple public pleas for the kidnapper to return her mother. In a video appeal covered by multiple outlets, she said directly: "This is the only way we will have peace. This is very valuable to us, and we will pay." She also told NBC News colleague Hoda Kotb, "We are in agony." After the FBI released suspect images, she wrote on Instagram: "We believe she is still alive. Bring her home."

The family has offered up to $1 million in reward money. The FBI separately raised its own reward from $50,000 to $100,000.

Ransom notes and the Mexico angle

The ransom-note trail has been one of the most confusing elements of the case. Media reports described notes demanding several million dollars in bitcoin, though law enforcement has not publicly confirmed a specific amount. The Pima County Sheriff's Office confirmed it was aware of reports about possible ransom notes and said it was "taking all tips and leads very seriously." Officials added: "Anything that comes in, goes directly to our detectives who are coordinating with the FBI."

Separately, Breitbart reported that TMZ said it received a note claiming Nancy had been seen in Mexico after her kidnapping. Harvey Levin quoted the note's author as saying: "I know what I saw five days ago south of the border, and I was told to shut up. So, I know who he is, and that was definitely Nancy with them." Levin noted that the sender referred to more than one person being involved. The FBI has not confirmed the note's authenticity.

The Mexico claim, if true, would raise serious questions about how an 84-year-old woman was moved across an international border without detection, and about the coordination required to pull it off. But without verification, it remains an unconfirmed tip in a case already crowded with them.

Tensions between the Pima County Sheriff's Office and the FBI have also drawn scrutiny. Accusations that Sheriff Nanos allowed a personal grudge with the FBI to complicate the search have added a layer of institutional dysfunction to a case that demands seamless cooperation.

An expert weighs in, and a grim scenario

Detective Brian Martin, during his April 7 appearance on the program Brian Entin Investigates, weighed in on the case. Martin described a hypothetical scenario in which suspects might have held Nancy for "a day or two" before leaving her in a location like a Walmart parking lot after obtaining money. Host Brian Entin pointed out a possible legal consequence: if Nancy died but the suspects did not intend her death, it could affect the charges they face.

Coffindaffer's claim that "Nancy sadly died" has not been confirmed by any official source. No body has been recovered. No suspect has been named. The Pima County Sheriff's Office and the FBI have not publicly stated that Nancy Guthrie is dead.

What is known is that Nancy requires daily heart medication, a fact authorities have emphasized publicly. Newsmax reported that authorities described her as medically vulnerable, raising the stakes with every passing day.

The FBI continues to ask anyone with information to contact 1-800-CALL-FBI (1-800-225-5324), their local FBI office, the nearest American Embassy or Consulate, or tips.fbi.gov.

Meanwhile, investigators have been chasing surveillance footage from a Tucson Circle K that may connect to the disappearance, one more thread in an investigation that has produced leads but no resolution.

A family left waiting

More than two months have passed since Nancy Guthrie vanished from her own home. Her family has been cleared. They have begged publicly for her return. They have offered a million dollars. And still, no one has been charged.

Coffindaffer's claim, that investigators knew the motive all along, may or may not prove fully accurate. But the broader picture she describes is hard to dismiss: an elderly woman targeted in her home, ransom notes sent to a family already in agony, and an investigation that has yet to produce a single arrest.

If law enforcement truly knew the motive "from the beginning," the public deserves to know what has taken so long, and what, exactly, is being done to hold the people responsible accountable. Families like the Guthries don't owe the system patience forever. The system owes them answers.