The Senate Banking Committee will vote next Wednesday to advance Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, clearing the way for a full Senate confirmation after months of delay caused by a single Republican holdout and a now-closed criminal investigation into current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

The scheduled vote follows Sen. Thom Tillis's announcement that he will support Warsh's confirmation, a reversal that removes the last major obstacle on the committee. Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, had blocked any Fed nominee for months, insisting the Justice Department first end its criminal probe tied to Powell before he would allow a vote to proceed.

That probe is now closed. Jeanine Pirro, the top federal prosecutor for Washington, D.C., said she ended the investigation into cost overruns in the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, the Eccles Building, and the Justice Department confirmed the case is finished. With that assurance in hand, Tillis posted a detailed statement on X laying out his reasoning and declaring his support for Warsh.

Tillis lifts his hold after DOJ closes Powell probe

Tillis had drawn criticism from the White House and fellow Republicans for holding up the nomination. His position was straightforward, if politically inconvenient: a sitting criminal investigation into the current Fed chairman threatened the institution's independence, and confirming a replacement while that investigation hung over Powell's head would have muddied the transition.

In his statement, Tillis laid out the conditions he required:

"I have been clear from the start: the U.S. Attorney's Office criminal investigation into Chair Powell was a serious threat to the Fed's independence, and it needed to end before I could support Kevin Warsh's confirmation. I welcome the Inspector General's investigation. This is a necessary and appropriate measure, and I have confidence it will be conducted thoroughly and professionally."

He went further, specifying that the DOJ had given him assurances any appeal of Judge Boasberg's ruling would concern legal principles only, not a pretext for reissuing subpoenas. Only a criminal referral from the Inspector General, Tillis said, would cause the investigation to reopen.

The senator's second condition, that the DOJ not use any appeal as a backdoor to continue pressuring the Fed, reflects a legitimate concern about prosecutorial overreach. Whatever one thinks of the original investigation into Eccles Building renovation costs, using a criminal probe as leverage over the nation's central bank is the kind of institutional abuse that should worry anyone who values clean government.

Tillis appeared on NBC News's Meet the Press to confirm his decision publicly. The Washington Examiner reported that Tillis told the program he had "worked a lot over the weekend" to secure assurances from the DOJ "that I needed to feel like they were not using the DOJ as a weapon to threaten the independence of the Fed."

Warsh nomination moves forward as Powell's term nears expiration

The timing matters. Powell's term as Fed chairman expires on May 15. His term as a Fed governor extends until 2028, meaning he could remain on the board even after stepping down as chair. But Powell had signaled he would not leave the chairmanship while the investigation into the building renovation continued, a stance that created a standoff between the White House, the DOJ, and the Senate.

With the probe closed and Tillis on board, that standoff is over. Trump nominated Warsh to replace Powell, and the Banking Committee now has the votes to send the nomination to the full Senate floor.

Newsmax reported that Tillis said flatly: "I am prepared to move on with the confirmation of Mr. Kevin Warsh. I think he will be a great Fed chair." He added a telling aside, suggesting Warsh would act independently of the White House: "I wouldn't be surprised if the president doesn't get annoyed with him once or twice."

That comment is worth noting. One persistent criticism from the left has been that Trump would install a compliant Fed chair willing to slash interest rates on command. Tillis, a Republican who just spent months holding up Trump's own nominee on principle, appears confident that Warsh will exercise independent judgment.

Warsh himself told senators during his confirmation hearings that he would be independent from White House pressure. AP News reported that economists who reviewed his hearing testimony found his stated outlook "much more consistent with an extended hold than additional cuts," in the words of Aditya Bhave of BofA Securities.

Rate cuts not guaranteed despite Trump's expectations

Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower interest rates. "When Kevin gets in, I do... interest rates should be much lower," the president said on Fox Business. But confirming a new Fed chair does not hand any president a rate-cut lever.

Warsh would be one of twelve voters on the Fed's rate-setting committee. Most current policymakers have signaled they are not ready to cut rates while inflation remains above target. Rising prices and a cautious labor market outlook could limit Warsh's ability, or willingness, to move rates lower anytime soon, regardless of what the White House wants.

That reality should temper expectations on all sides. Confidence about lower rates is one thing; the Fed's institutional structure and the current inflation picture are another. A chairman who respects the data and the committee process is exactly what sound monetary policy requires.

Just The News reported that Tillis's shift was significant precisely because a single Republican defection on the Banking Committee could have blocked Warsh's nomination from ever reaching the Senate floor. With Tillis now voting yes, the committee math works, and the full Senate can take up the confirmation.

The investigation that nearly derailed a nomination

The underlying saga deserves a clear-eyed summary. The U.S. Attorney's Office for Washington, D.C., led by Pirro, opened a criminal investigation into cost overruns tied to the renovation of the Eccles Building, the Fed's headquarters. The investigation touched Powell directly, and Tillis viewed it as a threat to the Fed's institutional independence.

Tillis refused to move on any Fed nominee until the probe was resolved. The White House pushed back. Questions swirled about the administration's intentions regarding Fed independence and rate policy. And Powell dug in, refusing to vacate the chairmanship under a cloud of investigation.

Pirro eventually closed the investigation. Tillis secured additional assurances, that any appeal of Judge Boasberg's ruling would be limited to legal principles, not used to reissue subpoenas, and that only a criminal referral from the Inspector General could reopen the case.

In his statement, Tillis framed the Inspector General's ongoing review as appropriate and professional, not a continuation of prosecutorial pressure. He then declared the matter resolved:

"With these assurances, I look forward to supporting Kevin Warsh's confirmation. He is an outstanding nominee, and it is time for the Federal Reserve to move beyond this distraction and return its full attention to its mission."

What comes next

The Banking Committee vote is set for next Wednesday. If Warsh advances, and with Tillis's support, he is expected to, the nomination moves to the full Senate. Powell's chairmanship expires May 15, creating a tight window but a clear path.

The broader lesson here is institutional. A Republican senator held up his own president's nominee on principle, insisted on conditions, got those conditions met, and then moved forward. The DOJ closed a probe that had no business lingering as a political weapon. And the nominee himself has signaled he will exercise independent judgment, even if that means the president doesn't always get the rate cuts he wants.

That is how the system is supposed to work. The Fed's independence matters, not as a talking point, but as a structural safeguard for every American who earns, saves, or borrows money. Warsh now has a clear shot at the job. What he does with it will tell us more than any confirmation hearing ever could.