Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to travel to Italy this week and meet Pope Leo XIV on Thursday, a Vatican source told Reuters, a sit-down that Vice President JD Vance will not attend, despite his own public efforts to build a relationship with the pontiff.

The meeting comes almost a year after both men stood alongside Pope Leo together on May 19, 2025. This time, Rubio goes alone. And the timing lands in the middle of a stretch where Vance's standing inside the administration and within the broader Republican coalition has drawn fresh scrutiny.

Neither the office of the vice president nor the State Department immediately responded to requests for comment, The Daily Beast reported. No reason was given for Vance's absence from the trip. But the optics are hard to ignore: the vice president, a Catholic convert who personally invited Pope Leo to visit the White House, was not part of the delegation.

A relationship that started warm and cooled fast

Vance and Rubio met Pope Leo together last May. In the months since, the vice president made public overtures toward the Vatican. He invited the pope to the White House. He recently extended what was described as an olive branch after earlier remarks that drew attention.

At a Turning Point USA event in Georgia, Vance said the pope should tread carefully on matters of doctrine. His exact words:

"I think it's very, very important for the pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology."

Vance later softened that tone, describing the pope as "preaching the gospel, as he should," and reportedly asking for prayers. But Pope Leo has so far declined Vance's invitation to visit the White House, a quiet rebuff that speaks louder than any press release.

The pope's own public statements have not made the relationship easier. Pope Leo, born Robert Francis Prevost on the South Side of Chicago, has made comments about "tyrants" and "warmongers" that drew a sharp response from President Trump. Last month, Trump posted a 334-word message on Truth Social about the pontiff, writing that he "wouldn't be in the Vatican" and accusing him of "hurting the Catholic Church!"

Rubio's quieter path

Rubio, a fellow Roman Catholic, has taken a different approach. Born into a Catholic family, Rubio dabbled in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints during time spent in Utah before returning to the Catholic faith. His religious biography has drawn less public friction with the Vatican than Vance's pointed commentary.

Now Rubio, not Vance, gets the face time with the pope. The secretary of state's trip to Italy places him at the center of a diplomatic moment that might have belonged to the vice president under different circumstances. For anyone watching the internal dynamics of the Trump administration, the contrast is worth noting.

Vance, meanwhile, was recently occupied with ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan while Trump attended a UFC event alongside Rubio, another data point in a pattern where the secretary of state appears closer to the president's side during high-profile moments.

That dynamic matters because both men are widely discussed as potential contenders for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Trump himself has reportedly named both Rubio and Vance as possible successors. And Trump reportedly asked aides to "rank" Vance's performance, a detail that suggests the president is paying close attention to how his vice president measures up.

Vance's polling problem

The Vatican meeting lands at a moment when Vance's public standing is under a microscope. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten described the vice president as "historically the least popular vice president at this point in their vice presidency," citing a net approval rating of negative 18 points.

Those numbers don't tell the whole story, of course. Broader GOP polling has shown Vance dominating the early 2028 field among Republican voters. But the gap between base enthusiasm and general-election appeal is exactly the kind of vulnerability that creates openings for a rival.

And Rubio has been filling those openings. Rubio has surged in 2028 betting markets, with some prediction platforms splitting on whether the secretary of state or the vice president is the true GOP frontrunner. Rubio's diplomatic portfolio, and now his solo papal audience, gives him a credibility on the world stage that a vice president stuck in ceasefire talks and failed Iran negotiations has struggled to match.

Vance's failed efforts with Iran war talks last month only added to the sense that his foreign-policy assignments have not produced the results the administration needs. Rubio, by contrast, keeps showing up in the frame alongside the president and now alongside the pope.

What the Vatican is watching

The Vatican's decision to facilitate a Rubio meeting, and apparently not a Vance meeting, carries its own diplomatic signal. Pope Leo has shown he is willing to engage with the Trump administration, but on his own terms. He declined Vance's White House invitation. He made public remarks that provoked a presidential social-media broadside. And now he is receiving the secretary of state, not the vice president.

Whether that reflects a genuine preference for Rubio, a coolness toward Vance's earlier theological critiques, or simply scheduling logistics, the Vatican has not said. The absence of any explanation is itself a statement.

For Vance, the situation adds another complication to an already crowded list. He has been courting Republican voters in early primary states even as his portfolio inside the administration seems to narrow. His public role has ranged from announcing enforcement actions, including the White House pursuit of Rep. Ilhan Omar over alleged immigration fraud, to high-stakes but inconclusive diplomatic missions.

Rubio, meanwhile, gets to stand next to the pope on Thursday.

The real question

None of this means Vance is finished. Vice presidents have weathered worse stretches. But the accumulation of signals, the polling, the papal snub, the president asking aides to rank his performance, the secretary of state's rising profile, paints a picture of a vice president whose position inside the administration is less secure than it looked a year ago.

The Vatican meeting is one event. It is not a verdict. But in politics, access is currency, and right now Marco Rubio is the one cashing in.

When the pope picks the secretary of state over the vice president for a private audience, the message isn't subtle. It's a reminder that titles matter less than trust, and that trust, once strained, doesn't come back on a schedule.