DANIEL VAUGHAN: A Trump Deal Is Last Chance To Save Ukraine
Donald Trump is sending his top foreign policy team to Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations on a possible end to the war in Ukraine. The conflict launched a year into Biden's term, and we may be approaching an end as Trump's second term begins. A negotiated end was impossible with Biden or Harris, but we may have that point here.
Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, national security adviser Mike Waltz, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are all headed to Saudi Arabia for negotiations with the Russians. Holding the talks in Saudi Arabia likely serves a double purpose for Trump's team to work on a Middle East deal, too. Rubio is starting in Jerusalem before heading to Saudi Arabia.
Europeans are angry that Trump is excluding them from the negotiating table, but it's hard to come up with a reason why they'd matter in it. "The Trump administration's Ukraine envoy, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, said at a security conference in Munich Saturday that he didn't foresee a direct role for European nations in the talks but that Ukraine would be at the negotiating table when formal peace talks are held."
Europe set the table for Putin to be able to invade. Germany, in particular, empowered Russia's oil sector by relying so heavily on it. And Germany is filled with politicians who are either on Russia's payroll or had a disastrous legacy that helped Putin in the case of Angela Merkel.
There's little reason to have these types at a table where the United States figures out how to end a war it has funded, supported, and done nearly everything but sent troops on the ground to fight.
Ukraine and its people have borne the brunt of this conflict. They've gone above and beyond while the Biden administration set a policy of using Ukraine to drain Russia's military while never achieving an end to the conflict. That even includes when Ukraine had the upper hand after surprising moments in the war. Instead of using Ukraine's gains as possible off-ramps to negotiate with, Biden sat idly by and let the moment pass.
Ukraine's price has been paid in blood. Some estimates say as many as 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died, compared to the more than 150,000 for Russia. The problem is that with Russia's much larger population, it can replace soldiers. Ukraine has been drained.
In short, it's a time to get an end if there ever was one. Trump is angling for a deal, as well. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has wisely used his country's wealth as a leverage point with Trump. He's offered to negotiate access to rare earth minerals. Trump jumped on it, initially wanting half the country's resources, which was rejected. But a deal will come down on this at some point.
The minerals give the United States a vested commercial interest in Ukraine, which keeps us there. For Trump, this has two big things: First, it denies those same resources to Russia, Europe, and China. Second, it grants the United States access to these minerals when China is trying to strangle that market.
Trump is also pushing Europeans to purchase American military arms to send to Ukraine. If Europe cares about Ukraine and NATO, now is the time to pay up. This would require more than issuing unhappy diatribes on paper and via social media. The war is real and cares little for European feelings.
In short, Trump is trying to build some leverage ahead of negotiations. He wants Europe to at least act like they're going to foot the bill and also give the United States a financial interest in the outcome. That will allow him to pressure Russia towards an end.
The only plan from Team Biden was a continual war in which Ukraine was forced to fight to the last man. This is fine if the only goal is to drain Russia's military might over time. If you'd actually like to save Ukraine, a negotiated settlement is the only possible outcome.
So far, Biden and Europeans are fine with dead Ukrainians, but they never had a plan for saving them beyond sending more arms. With Trump, he's seeking an end to the conflict at a moment without much leverage against Russia. Putin is a snake that hasn't changed in his entire time in power.
The West has entertained wild notions of Ukraine marching into Moscow and toppling Russia. We had a bizarre coup attempt that ended in death for those involved. And now we're here, at the negotiating table. Putin wants a sucker's deal for everyone. He gets everything without giving up anything.
That leaves it to TRump's team to start hammering out a deal. If they fail, the conflict will continue with waning support in the United States and Europe. The time to end it is now, and many Ukrainian lives depend on the outcome. Otherwise, there may be neither a Ukraine to return to nor Ukrainians to fill it up.