Here's a quick question: Did you remember that we're still in a government shutdown? It's started to disappear from newspaper front pages and the top of cable news. That's understandable since Trump is delivering massive peace deals. But if you're a Democrat, you've lost all momentum, with pain going up.

I'm not just making a random observation; we have data on this point, too. Scott Rasmussen noted in his polling, "25% of voters don't know there's a shutdown... up 7 points from a week ago. Only 5% impacted a lot, down from 9% a week ago."

When Barack Obama shut the government down, he made sure everyone knew it and felt it. That's why we had bizarre moments where open-air war memorials were barricaded from veterans trying to see the monuments to them. With Trump, he's done the opposite by minimizing the impact.

The result is that Democrats are losing this standoff. It's been clear in polling, too. In the RealClearPolitics average, Trump is retaining his approval rate, which is above where Obama and George W. Bush were at this point in their second terms. Furthermore, Republicans are gaining on Democrats in the generic ballot.

Pre-shutdown, Democrats were holding a small but measurable 3-4 point lead in these points. Now, the lead is down to 1.9 points according to RealClearPolitics. In short, Republicans have cut the Democratic lead in a critical measure in the polls in half.

Betting markets have responded in kind. CNN's Harry Enten noted these in his analysis of the midterms. He said, "Well, we were looking at the Democrats with a very clear shot of taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives according to the Kalshi Predication Market Odds. We saw them at an 83 percent chance. But those odds have gone plummeting down. Now we're talking about just a 63 percent chance, while the GOP's chances up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17 percent to now a 37 percent chance."

He added, "The bottom line is,... Democrats have stayed basically steady. They have fallen off the pace. Democrats were way out ahead back in 2017 on the generic congressional ballot. And now we're basically looking at Democrats ahead. But again, they are so far in back of the pace that they set back there. And so, I think what a lot of folks are seeing, folks like myself, are saying, wait a minute, given what we might be seeing in redistricting, is this plus three going to be enough?"

It's worth nothing; these are obviously a year out from any election. But the numbers do matter for the off-year elections coming up in places like New Jersey and Virginia. Polls are showing tight state-wide races across the board in those states, something Democrats were not planning on sweating out with Trump back in the White House.

Polls are polls, and it wouldn't shock me if Democrats overperformed given the clear fundamental advantages they should have in these races right now. But we can't ignore what the data is telling us: the shutdown is hurting Democrats.

House Speaker Mike Johnson gave an odd warning considering all this data. He said this could be the longest shutdown ever, and hinted it would go well into November. If you're Republicans looking at your improving data, this government shutdown could be a ticket to boost your election odds heading into the elections.

It's hard to miss the challenge: Republicans are daring Democrats to continue hurting themselves in the polls with this shutdown in the middle of an election season. If Republicans pull off surprise upsets in Virginia and New Jersey, it won't be hard to look back at Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries' decision to commit to a shutdown and see it backfire.

Again, traditional political analysis says Democrats are favored in these races and in the upcoming midterms. Republicans hold all three branches of government, so it's natural to expect Democrats to improve their position.

But the data could be telling the truth, too. If Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot just before an election, Republicans are going to laugh all the way to the ballot box. It'll be considered a generational electoral fumble on the part of Democratic leadership.

For now, Republicans are benefiting in the polls. Senate Majority Leader John Thune should hold Democrats' feet to the fire as we move along. The votes we've had on military pay and more are a good start, but he should escalate and push more votes on Democrats.

If they want to make this about them, then Republicans should oblige and let Democrats get run over by the train. Give Democrats what they want: the full credit for a shutdown, and remind everyone of this same fact when you're ordering food. Because those drivers trying to make ends meet are the ones hurting from the Schumer Shutdown.