While a serious part of the fight over the immigration debacle in Minnesota centers on deportation policy, a lesser-known reason for the parties' contention has to do with something more basic: elections. Poor Democrat governance is destroying blue states, and people are fleeing, that matters.

You don't have to take my word for it: the Associated Press reported on Democrats panicking over this very fact. We're halfway through the decade, and everyone is looking forward to the next 2030 census. The results of the ongoing census data reveal a bad scenario for Democrats:

The Brennan Center projects that California will lose four seats and New York two in the 2030 census. Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Wisconsin would lose one seat each. Except for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are swing states, all of those states have consistently backed Democrats for president and sent Democratic majorities to the House.

On the flip side, GOP strongholds like Texas and Florida are expected to add a total of 8 seats. Idaho and Utah are gaining two more seats, giving Republicans a 10-seat advantage based solely on those numbers (it won't work out that way; seat drawing is an art form). Two more seats would go to North Carolina and Arizona, purple swing states.

This shift impacts not just the House, but the Electoral College, too. Looking ahead, "If the projected map for the next decade were used in 2024, Trump's electoral college margin would have been even larger. He would have won the Electoral College 322-216 instead of 312-226."

2020 was the first time that California lost seats after a century of gaining. And frankly, the results of the 2020 census should have been worse for Democrats. Republicans and Trump have credibly accused Democrats of meddling with the census process to help themselves.

A 2022 audit by the Census bureau admitted the their counts were off. The states they undercounted? Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Illinois. Five of those six states are heavily Republican. The states the Census overcounted? New York, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Delaware, Rhode Island, Ohio, and Utah.

In other words, the states where we're expecting the most significant swings - in Representatives and electoral votes - are the ones at the top of the list getting miscounts. And the "miscalculation" benefited Democrats with Biden in office.

Furthermore, the Department of Justice settled with one of the contractors involved in the Census after accusing it of fraud. That settlement came a year ago.

Another state was heavily involved in both calculations: Minnesota.

Like many of its Democrat-run states, Minnesota is a shell of its former self. Democrat-run cities are imploding, much in the same way they are in other states. People are leaving for better places, usually to the south. What's left behind is an even more radicalized Democratic base that is isolated and shutoff.

If we get an accurate Census and reapportionment, Minnesota will shrink in its national significance. Deporting anyone from that state crushes attempts to reverse this trend. And it should be noted: a state as shot through with fraud as Minnesota has been with the Somali day care scams probably shouldn't be trusted with census numbers.

If you're turning a blind eye to cash going out the door, what else are you doing?

The mid-decade redistricting fight we're seeing in states like Texas and California, with maps redrawn on the fly, is an appetizer of what is coming. This isn't about opposing Trump. In California, Gavin Newsom is trying to squeeze every drop out of a California delegation that is slated to lose seats.

Now, does this mean Republicans are set for an impenetrable coalition if all the Census figures line up? No, of course not.

Democrats will be forced to adapt, or die. And they will adapt. It's the thing parties always do, whether ideological partisans want that or not. The sole job of a political party is to win. Shifting dynamics will force Democrats to change focus to win in the southern states.

I am curious how they plan to do that after spending the last decade castigating everyone who lives in these states. And the botched 2020 census has helped cover Democrat losses.

Remember, 2024 was an election where Donald Trump - the man the media is convinced is the most hated man alive - won not just the electoral college, but the popular vote. That shift alone shook some Democrats to their core (read the weekly Jeremiads of The Liberal Patriot on the Democratic Party).

The evidence of what is projected to happen in the next Census is already there. Democrats can win the House, and even the Senate, in these midterms. It doesn't change the reality that the map is shifting out from underneath them.

The electoral math that has saved them for decades is about to become their undoing. That's why we're seeing panic over immigration, deportations, and more. Democrats are desperate to get people into their states by any means possible.

However, the primary problem for Democrats is simple: they can't govern states. They don't know how to anymore. Republican-run states are performing better than Democrat-run ones. Gavin Newsom has single-handedly overseen the downfall of one of the most prosperous states in the union, and his socialist peers are threatening to chase away the remaining billionaires.

California is intent on killing its golden goose and then complaining about losing political power. Democrats are to blame. They saved themselves in 2020 with a bad Census... but now things look worse for 2030.

In Democratic politics, that means the time to riot is now.