This week is the final week of early voting for most Americans. After that, we all wait for Election Day. The press is covering every story with increasing significance, pretending these matters when, in fact, the opposite is true. Nearly 50 million votes have been cast in this election through mail and in-person votes. When compared to 2020's turnout, that's nearly a third of the votes already cast.

By the time we hit Election Day, most of this election cake will already be baked. Typically, towards the end of the race, if there's a uniform move of the polls in one direction or another, that signifies where late-breaking voters are pushing. NBC News' Steve Kornacki told viewers on NBC News and MSNBC this week that it's clear that a shift towards Trump is happening—you can't ignore it.

The campaign's actions tell part of the story. Trump held a large rally in Madison Square Garden in the heart of New York City and is following that up with last-second rallies in Virginia and New Mexico. These are the moves of a campaign trying to expand the map at the last minute to open up a larger electoral path.

Meanwhile, Harris held a rally with Beyonce in Texas and is trenching in Washington D.C. for her "closing message" before hitting the battleground states for one more pass. The big issue ahead this week for Harris is how she gets Democratic voters out. In battlegrounds like Nevada, Republicans are holding a lead in the early vote for the first time in decades.

These warning signs signal to Democrats that they have a turnout problem. Can they fix that? The vaunted "ground game" for the Harris campaign is feeling the heat. After Republican enthusiasm, Democrats have to work hard to drive out voters to even things out.

The pivot to calling Trump a fascist and comparing him to Hitler is a base turnout strategy. Democrats are trying everything to get Democrats out to vote. One Democratic Super PAC is targeting minority voters, threatening them by saying, "Your Friends and Family Will Be Able To See How Often You Vote." Those ads are flooding the zone in places like Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee.

But all scare tactics have their limits. The main super PAC supporting Kamala Harris sent a warning message through the New York Times, cautioning that the constant attacks on Trump were limited. One line in their report read, "Attacking Trump's Fascism Is Not That Persuasive."

The super PAC tried nudging the campaign in another direction, saying, "Purely negative attacks on Trump's character are less effective than contrast messages that include positive details about Kamala Harris's plans to address the needs of everyday Americans."

But that brings up the big problem for Harris: who is she, and what does she present to voters? The Harris campaign said they'd make sure to hit these points while also preparing for a big rally in Washington D.C., at the spot where Donald Trump made his January 6 speech in 2021. The closing message clearly aims to declare Trump bad in every way possible. Meanwhile, everyone outside the Harris campaign orbit is screaming at her to tell voters what she believes.

People need a reason to vote for Harris, and they don't have one. Donald Trump is a known commodity. It's been nine years since Trump descended Trump Tower to enter the Republican primaries in 2015. There's nothing about Trump that is unknown to voters, and screaming about the same thing has its limits.

Harris tried to make the case by going on an interview blitz. Still, even here, she's failed to articulate a single message for voters to grasp in the closing days. There's no reason for running for Harris. She was put in place by Democratic elites and wealthy donors, and voters are now being asked to accept the ticket these elites put together.

For all his faults, Trump has been through three primaries, and this is his third general election. People experienced his four years in office. There are no mysteries with Donald Trump. There are with Harris, and she's done nothing to quell concerns or fears or give hope to people wanting to vote for Harris.

No one has ever asked Harris to give deep policy specifics. What they want to know is simple: what she believes, what she is going to do, and how she will differ from Biden. The current holder of the White House is deeply unpopular across the board. Harris hasn't answered these questions, and in the places of answers, Democratic voters are getting lectured that they need to vote immediately or they're all bad people.

It's a bizarre situation, but one that Democrats chose the moment they kicked Biden off the ballot. Maybe voters shrug all this off and deliver it to Harris. But it's also possible that every issue with Harris spirals out of control, and people refuse to pull the lever for a politician who hasn't earned anything from voters. Trust is earned, not given, and Harris is demanding it while blasting Trump.

Harris has a week to figure all this out, and votes are piling up quickly.