There are many ways you can measure when things get tight in an economy. Official data is great and tells a big-picture story of where things are. But sometimes, the bigger story is actually in plain view, with people making decisions and responding in ways that are critical to understanding the moment.

Here's an example: during the Depression-era South, a new kind of burger called the slugburger popped up and grew in popularity. If you don't know, a slugburger was "a fried 5-cent burger made of ground beef or pork, blended with soy and flour." The addition of non-beef and even non-meat additives was meant to help stretch and extend the use of meat.

You didn't want to waste anything. Also, you tried to lower the per-pound cost of the meat you were serving. That allowed restaurants to sell more meat items on the menu at lower prices, while also stretching the amount of beef available.

I've had a few slugburgers in my time, and though tasty, they're definitely a gnarly-looking mess. Compare this to when times are plentiful. American restaurants practically get into a product war on how much "real beef" is offered on a given sandwich.

McDonald's literally sells a "quarter pounder," based on this fact alone. Arby's runs with the slogan, "We have the meats."

We've had a similar phenomenon happen in the last couple of years. Like our ancestors, we're getting a specially marketed product to handle the soaring price of beef, it's the hot new burger: smashburgers.

Eater declared 2024 the "year of the smashburger," and that popularity has only gone up this year. What's critical to understand is that smashburgers pivot in the opposite direction of thick burgers, and aim for thin beef patties, dressed up as much as possible to make them as tasty as their meatier counterparts.

In short, it's a way for a restaurant to sell good, cheap burgers while stretching its beef supply a little further. In this case, they're not adding additives like soy and flour, but they are cutting down on the amounts. And this is understandable, given that beef prices are fighting with gold's soaring prices.

I'm not saying smashburgers are a sign we're in a Depression. This is not a slugburger. But it is in the same vein of thought. It's an indicator.

A recession indicator is any repeatable sign that people are stretching money, trading down, delaying purchases, or substituting cheaper options—because budgets are getting squeezed. These indicators are the moment you notice everyone is making things last.

Does this mean we're heading into a recession? No, of course not. Those are hard to predict. But it does mean human behavior is changing, and people are adjusting their lifestyles.

It's a sign that people are feeling economic pressure again, much as they have for the last several years. That pressure is not going away.

Here's a similar indicator, related mainly to the wealthy. Across America, the parking lots in front of Dollar Generals, Dollar Trees, Family Dollars, and more are seeing an influx of "affluent Americans." According to market research:

Dollar Tree reported that households earning at least $100,000 were a "meaningful growth driver" in the first quarter of 2025 as same store sales rose 5.4%. The company credits the growth and broader appeal to a wider selection of products and a multi-price strategy — some items retail for up to $7, but 85% of its goods are $2 or less. Dollar General saw a similar pattern in the same quarter. New shoppers in 2025 are visiting more frequently and spending more per trip compared to new customers last year, the company said.

As with a lot of things, it's not about what people are saying, it's what they're doing. We're seeing people prefer smashburgers over bigger burger options, Dollar Stores over name brands, and more.

These are just indicators, though. This could be a blip; it could be more. But it is an indicator: the flashing red light on the economy that tells you something is wrong.

I could see people claiming that the burger example just points to beef prices, but we're seeing similar things across the board. In their own way, people are looking for ways to stretch things. Smashburger examples can be found in many places.

We're not in a slugburger position, thank goodness. But the lights are flashing red. And you don't have to take my word for it, just go to your favorite restaurant and ask: are they looking for ways to shrink plate sizes? If so, that's an indicator, even if it is tasty.

If you put enough of those indicators together, they start telling a broader story.