DANIEL VAUGHAN: Trump Should Reject The Hamas Ceasefire Deal
According to reports, Israel and Hamas are nearing a new ceasefire deal that would free some hostages and attempt to bring an end to the conflict in Gaza. The goals of ending any war are noble. Still, this deal does something that should not be negotiable: it saves Hamas and allows the terrorist organization to rebuild, rearm, and remain both the governing entity of Palestinians and a direct threat to Americans and Israelis.
In case anyone had forgotten, Americans are still being held hostage by Hamas. Whether or not these Americans are still alive is an unknown, nor do we have any real idea of the condition of those alive. Hamas has released videos of hostages to families and the Israeli government to taunt everyone involved and show the torture they inflict on everyone.
Donald Trump has promised Hamas there will be "hell to pay" if the hostages aren't released by the time he's inaugurated. While the Biden administration is driving the car on this deal, Steven Witkoff, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, is a significant part of these deliberations.
While getting a win would be a good start for Trump on day one of his administration, it's unclear how this deal is goodfor anyone but Hamas.
It's a ceasefire with three phases.
In the first phase, "Hamas releases 33 hostages, including female civilians and soldiers, children and civilians over 50. Israel releases 30 Palestinian prisoners for each civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier. Halt to fighting, Israeli forces move out of populated areas to the edges of the Gaza Strip. Displaced Palestinians begin returning home, more aid enters the strip."
This phase is supposed to last 42 days while the parties exercise all its various components. It's the most concrete part of this ceasefire.
In the second phase, we get a "Declaration of sustainable calm." That's followed by, "Hamas frees remaining male hostages (soldiers and civilians) in exchange for a yet-to-be-negotiated number of Palestinian prisoners and a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip."
This phase also lasts 42 days and has more negotiating room in it. The third phase is indefinite and includes: "Bodies of deceased Israeli hostages exchanged for bodies of deceased Palestinian fighters. Implementation of a reconstruction plan in Gaza. Border crossings for movement in and out of Gaza are reopened."
This is the most unknown portion of the deal and contains a lot of negotiation room for both parties. What those plans mean and what everything would entail involves details no one has yet.
While there's no exact breakdown of the number of civilians versus female soldiers in the first phase, at a minimum, Israel will be releasing 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for the 33 hostages. Seth Mandel notes in Commentary, "Israel would also release about 1,000 Palestinian security inmates in Israeli jails. Of those, nearly 200 are in prison for murder or serving long-term sentences for violence. These would be sent to live outside of the Palestinian territories."
Mandel also notes of these prisoners, "The release of violent Palestinian terrorists and inmates will represent security threats, boost loyalty to Hamas and in some cases Hamas's manpower, and incentivize the taking of future hostages. Hostage-taking, in fact, will be seen as the only successful method of Palestinian 'resistance' and the only consistent advantage that terrorist groups have over the West."
Why does this matter? Israel will essentially be giving Hamas its footsoldiers back. This is after decimating the group in Gaza, much in the same way it's done to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas will also have its allies in Qatar to help it out while Iran and Hezbollah lick their wounds.
In short, Israel will enter a ceasefire deal that effectively saves Hamas when it's on the brink. Hamas is running around stealing aid that we're sending to Palestinians and barely surviving. And while it survives, it continues to attack Israel and pose a regional threat.
Far from there being "hell to pay" for Hamas, it is getting the lifeline it so desperately needs. And it is getting it at a moment when Trump is entering office, and the numerous failed attempts by the Biden administration to save Hamas have failed.
Trump and the United States are entering this negotiation with Israel from a place of strength, and with that, we're extracting a loss. Steven Witkoff should be telling the Trump administration that this is a bad deal that rewinds the clock and sets us back on the path to another October 7 in the future.
We should be building towards "never again." Hamas should never again be allowed to commit another October 7, and the United States should work with Israel to ensure that. Americans were killed and taken hostage, too. Hamas does not care.
We should. Donald Trump should reject this deal and play hardball with Hamas.