Trump has declared a deal with China, or at least the beginnings of one regarding trade. The leadup to this deal and how we follow through with it will determine a lot on the economic front in the months and years to come. Trump got the leverage he wanted, but the success of the deal will be measured on a longer time horizon.

It's important to note how we got here, though. China faced an existential crisis and blinked. They won't say it publicly, but that is what happened.

The moment "liberation day" was announced, China tried to start negotiations. Reuters reports, "After Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao quietly reached out to his U.S. counterpart, Howard Lutnick, but was rebuffed as not senior enough, according to one official familiar with the exchanges."

Reuters added, "Among the main drivers of Beijing's climb-down were internal signals that Chinese companies were struggling to avoid bankruptcies and to replace the U.S. market, three people familiar with the Chinese government's thinking said."

Notably, this was a direct threat to China's economy: "One of the officials said Chinese companies were struggling to replace the U.S. market because developing nations cannot buy as many items, and that for many firms this was an existential threat that needed to be resolved in days or weeks."

China felt the screws tightening even more when other countries started lining up for deals: the U.K., India, Vietnam, Japan, and more were ready to take a deal which left China isolated.

China entered the talks knowing that its manufacturing sector faced an existential threat and that global markets didn't think much of its stimulus. That's scary for them because "Chinese policymakers, privy to the country's early economic data, appeared to be ramping up stimulus measures at a time when the economy has started to feel the early strains from tariffs."

In short, China entered the year on a weak footing. Its economy has struggled since the COVID-19 pandemic, which it refuses to claim responsibility for. In response, the Chinese Communist Party has severely cut back on the kind of economic data it reports publicly due to ongoing fears of an economic implosion.

Trump's tariffs landed like a nuclear bomb on an already struggling country. And now they face an existential threat.

Trump got the leverage he wanted.

The question now is: what does he do with that leverage?

If China walks away largely unscathed and agrees to terms it doesn't end up following, this will be all for naught. Trump has to make this count. He has China as close as you'll ever get them by the throat outside a war context. The time to drive a deal home is now.

Everything aligned perfectly for this tariff strike to try to reduce China's power to control the world. China has used supply chains and its power as the world's manufacturing floor to control events in its favor. It has created a monopoly by destroying the economic capacities of other countries.

For the United States, this began as a means to get cheap goods. However, the end result has been our dependence on China and our loss of capacity to fully resist them. The COVID-19 pandemic ripped the veil off this reality for everyone to see.

It's dangerous for U.S. economic independence and national security for one country to have as much of a hold on the American economy. It's not about making the United States a manufacturing giant once again - it's about destroying China's capacity to manipulate us and our institutions.

Just this past week, Stanford's student newspaper revealed it had uncovered extensive Chinese academic espionage at the university on the West Coast. They are not alone.

China is a communist country and cannot produce the creativity that capitalism allows, as in the United States. China has to steal, copy, and then push state funds into products to undercut and destroy its U.S. counterparts.

The latest version of this is their contribution to artificial intelligence: DeepSeek. They likely stole OpenAI's products and remade them into a cheaper model, which still steals American user data.

Trump's deal and how it is enforced will dictate how we move into this new future. The premeditated and purposeful destruction of the American economy has to be answered. Trump accomplished the first part by gaining leverage over the Chinese.

How he exercises that leverage will be critical to what happens next. America is depending on him to land a great deal - and I hope he does. We desperately need it.