2024 polling shows RFK Jr. is taking voters from both Trump and Biden
New polling from the Morning Consult shows that third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could end up taking voters from both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the 2024 general election.
The pollster also included third-party candidate Cronel West in the mix. But, he is not receiving anywhere near the support that Kennedy is receiving, suggesting that he will have less of an impact on Biden's and Trump's election chances.
Morning Consult conducted the poll between Oct. 30 and Nov. 7, surveying swing-state voters.
The results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.
The findings
Overall, the pollster found that Kenndy is pulling 10% support, while West is pulling 1% support, and that each of these candidates is taking about the same amount of voters from Trump as they are from Biden.
The Morning Consult reports:
In combined data from all the swing states, 8% of voters who backed Biden in a two-way contest against Trump said they would support Kennedy in a multi-candidate ballot. This is similar to the 7% of Trump’s head-to-head supporters who would also back the anti-vaccine activist if given the option.
This may suggest that Kennedy's and West's presidential bids might not really affect either Trump's or Biden's chances of winning, considering that polling shows that the independent candidates can take voters away from both Trump and Biden at about an equal rate.
But, Morning Consult points out one way that Kennedy's candidacy, in particular, could end up being more problematic for Trump than Biden.
Per Morning Consult:
While Trump’s campaign has already sought to undercut Kennedy’s independent bid, he is still more liked among Republicans than Democrats. This gives Biden’s campaign a potential opportunity to turn Kennedy’s candidacy against Trump by playing up his fringe views that are popular in some right-wing quarters.
Background
Kennedy was running in the 2024 presidential election as a Democrat up until about a month ago, and he was the only Democratic candidate who was posing some real problems for Biden. Now, however, Kennedy is running as an independent.
Biden remains the clear favorite to win the Democratic Party's 2024 presidential nomination. According to Real Clear Politics, Biden leads his next closest rival in the Democratic presidential primary by a staggering 65.4 percentage points, on average.
Trump is also dominating the Republican field, although not by as big a margin as Biden's. Trump, according to Real Clear Politics, leads his next closest challenger by, on average, 44.1 percentage points.
So, it is looking as though the 2024 general election is going to be a rematch between Trump and Biden. Trump is in the lead in this matchup, and his lead has been expanding recently.
Morning Consult reports:
Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in six of the seven swing states we surveyed this month, and adding third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West to the ballot does not change that.
