Betting website gives Michelle Obama a 3.3% chance of becoming president

 October 24, 2023

There has been growing speculation in recent months that former First Lady Michelle Obama may make a White House run next year.

Yet while some argue that another Obama presidency could be just around the corner, newly released numbers suggest many aren't convinced. 

Betting website gives Mrs. Obama a 3.3% chance of becoming president

According to the website Election Betting Odds, Mrs. Obama stands only a 3.3% chance of becoming the next president of the United States.

What's more, Florida Politics contributor A.G. Gancarski pointed out in an article published on Monday, the former first lady's odds appear to be on the way down, dropping from 5% earlier in the month.

Those figures were drawn from betting odds published by multiple websites which allow gamblers to wager on political events, which "are then volume-weighted, meaning that the odds for each market are multiplied by that market's share of quarterly volume."

Election Betting Odds' FAQ section maintains that betting markets have superior predictive power as they "take into account important factors besides polls."

This is because "[u]nlike pundits, bettors put their money where their mouths are." What's more, those with inside information "might trade before news breaks publicly."

Former first lady trails multiple candidates

As of Monday, Mrs. Obama's odds were ranked below those assigned to Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis who stood at 3.7%.

Also ahead of the former first lady is former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.

However, the prospect that Mrs. Obama may appear at the top of the Democratic Party's ticket remains a topic of conversation.

Ted Cruz things Mrs. Obama is "a very serious danger"

Among those talking about the subject is Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who discussed last month during an episode of his podcast "Verdict with Ted Cruz."

"Here's the scenario that I think is perhaps the most likely and most dangerous," Cruz told his listeners. "In August of 2024, the Democrat kingmakers [will] jettison Joe Biden and parachute in Michelle Obama. I view this as a very serious danger."

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