Biden campaign's frequent visits to Michigan reveal key swing state is at risk of being lost to Trump

 May 21, 2024

President Joe Biden won the crucial battleground state of Michigan in the 2020 election but faces the prospect of losing it this time around in a rematch against former President Donald Trump.

That grim reality has been all but conceded by the Biden campaign by way of their recent barnstorming through the state to try and rally support for the beleaguered incumbent president ahead of November's elections, according to a report from The Detroit News.

Indeed, multiple polls show that if the election were held today, Trump would likely prevail in Michigan in an exceptionally close race, and likely also the national race too.

Jill Biden pleads with women voters to support President Biden

The Detroit News reported that first lady Jill Biden was in the Motor City earlier this week to speak with attendees at the Legacy Luncheon for the Michigan Women’s Democratic Caucus, and her message was dire.

"Michigan, we need you," Biden pleaded. "We have to meet this moment as if our rights are at stake, because they are. As if democracy is on the line, because it is."

That speech came at the tail-end of a multi-day swing through the state, including the oft-forgotten Upper Peninsula, to engage with and mobilize women voters in support of her husband with doom-crying predictions of what a prospective second term for former President Trump might mean for women's rights, particularly abortion.

Her remarks also came just one day before President Biden himself delivered a keynote address during an NAACP event in Detroit on Sunday and followed a visit to Michigan less than two weeks earlier by Vice President Kamala Harris -- all of which signifies just how critically important the state's electoral votes are to the Biden campaign.

Polls show Trump leading a close race in the state

The Detroit News further reported that President Biden won Michigan in 2020 by a margin of 51-48%, a reversal of former President Trump's thin victory in that state in 2016. However, current polls suggest that the state may not remain in the Democratic column come Election Day in November.

A local poll in January found that Trump had an astounding 8-point lead over Biden in Michigan, though the RealClearPolling average of polls in that state shows a much tighter margin of just 0.8 points now.

Looking beyond just Michigan, RCP's average of national polls has Trump leading Biden by about 1.1 points, but that includes leads in all seven of the major battleground states -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Compare that to the 2020 election, when Biden led Trump by around 5.5 points at this same stage of the race and ultimately won six of those seven key swing states.

Why Biden is at risk of losing Michigan

Michigan appears to be in play in the 2024 election for a variety of reasons, some of which President Biden could address but also that are out of his reach.

That includes the struggling economy with still-high price inflation, apathy among black voters that are key to the Democratic coalition, weakened support among young voters over his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, not to mention his advanced age and declining physical and mental fitness.

To be sure, Biden could still pull off a victory in Michigan in November, but it should be clear to all that his campaign has quietly acknowledged that the state is at risk of being won by Trump by way of the increasingly frequent visits that Biden and his surrogates are making there.

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