President Biden's coalition is showing fractures as Arab voters rebel over his handling of the Israel conflict.

Many Arabs are disappointed with Biden and see his stance as overly favorable to Israel. According to the Arab American Institute, Biden's support with Arab voters has dropped 42 percent since 2020 - and Arab voters are nearly twice as likely to prefer President Trump. 

The shift could spell trouble for Biden in 2024. Although small in population, Arabs are a sizable minority in places like Michigan, a critical swing state that has helped decide the last two presidential elections.

Biden loses key constituency....

This is the first time in the poll's history that a majority of Arab Americans do not support the Democratic party. Support for Biden has fallen from 59 percent three years ago to 17 percent.

More than twice as many, 40 percent, said they would support Trump, despite the attempts of Biden's team to paint Trump as an "Islamophobe."

That represents a five-point bump for Trump since 2020, when 35 percent of Arab Americans said they supported him.

And for the first time in the poll's history, Arab Americans identify more with the Republican party (32%) than the Democrats (23%).

“It’s important for our organizing that we know how the community is positioning itself in this. And it’s important for us to let the administration know – you’re at risk of losing this particular component group of the community,” James Zogby, president and co-founder of the American Arab Institute, said.

Israel crisis jolts Biden campaign

66 percent view Biden's response negatively, and similar numbers say Biden should pursue a cease-fire and stop sending weapons to Israel.

Biden has rejected calls for a cease-fire as premature and unfair to Israel in the wake of Hamas' October 7 attack, in which 1,400 people including women and children were brutally murdered.

Biden has sought to balance defense of Israel with humanitarian concern for Palestinian civilians, thousands of whom have died in what some have characterized as a "genocide."

The only Palestinian in Congress, Michigan representative Rashida Tlaib, has condemned Biden's response, warning Arab and Muslim voters "will remember where you stood."

The war in Israel appears likely to drag on, so there is a real chance that this will remain an issue for disillusioned Arab voters a year out. Of course, a lot could change by then, but this isn't good news for Biden.