Jon Favreau, the former Obama aide, is shocked by some recent polling that has come out about the 2024 presidential election. 

What surprised him, according to the Daily Caller, is the fact that Trump did extremely well with a sector of the population that Democrats tend to dominate.

The poll comes from Catalist, and the complete results can be found here. It is titled, "A comprehensive new data analysis into why Harris lost in 2024."

The Cook Political Report explains:

After every major presidential and midterm election, the Democratic data firm Catalist releases a comprehensive analysis of the composition and partisan leanings of the electorate. What distinguishes their analysis from election night exit polling is that it integrates data like vote history, Census data and Catalist’s own polling and modeling, which can give us a more fulsome view of who joined the electorate, and — as importantly — who dropped out of it.

Some surprising findings:

The polling had some findings that have caught many off guard.

One example has to do with new voters and infrequent voters, which the Democrats tend to do extremely well with. The polling showed that Harris got less than 50% of the vote from these voters, which the Daily Caller referred to as "unprecedented" for a Democrat.

This, however, is only a small part of the results.

Trump, for example, did extremely well with nonwhite voters, such as Latinos. Trump also did extremely well with younger individuals, who also tend to vote Democrat.

The Daily Caller reports:

Trump performed 1% better with women overall in 2024 against Harris than he did against Biden in 2020. He also did 7% better with Hispanic women and 4% better with Asian-American and Pacific Islander women, neither losing nor gaining ground with black women and white women.

"As unsurprising as depressing"

This is Favreau's take on the poll results.

"We finally got the Catalist data and the headlines out of it were as unsurprising as they were depressing," he said.

Favreau continued:

Kamala Harris lost critical ground with young voters and people of color, especially men of color — especially young men of color. In fact, she gained ground only with married white women and not by much … one point. And super voters in this report — which are people who voted in the last four elections — she did one point better [than former President Joe] Biden among the super voters. But she lost a lot of ground among the irregular voters, people who have voted in just a few of the last four elections.

Here is the most surprising bit, though: "As Amy Walter and Carrie Dann at the Cook Political Report put in their headline, the main conclusion from this report is: ‘The Obama Coalition Turned Into the Trump Coalition.'"

There is no doubt the Republicans will be looking to keep this trend going in 2026 and 2028.