In a likely 2024 matchup, Donald Trump has a clear lead over Joe Biden, according to a poll

March 24, 2023

Former President Donald Trump has a clear edge over President Joseph Biden among likely voters in a prospective 2024 fight, according to a McLaughlin poll released Thursday.

There was a 5-point difference in support between Trump and Biden, with 48% supporting Trump and 43% supporting Biden. Trump also leads Biden in battleground states 20 months before the 2024 general election. Trump received 51 percent of the vote, while Biden received 41 percent, according to Breitbart News.

“Trump would beat Biden in a landslide,” the pollster analyzed.

Trump also leads Biden in battleground states 20 months before the 2024 general election. Trump received 51 percent of battleground voters' support, while Biden received 41 percent.  “Trump would beat Biden in a landslide,” the pollster analyzed.

Predictions for the Upcoming Election

When questioned about GOP primary support, Trump topped 13 possible primary opponents with 46 percent of the vote, 23 points ahead of the next closest primary opponent, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who received 23 percent of the vote.

If Trump and DeSantis faced each other in a head-to-head race, Trump would receive 61 percent of the vote to DeSantis' 31 percent, a 30-point margin.

Trump's popularity among Republican voters has grown. He has increased by 19 points since January.  From March 17 to 21, 1,000 likely voters were polled. The error margin was not stated.

The poll was conducted last Friday, when the media was “dominated by reports that former President Trump would be indicted by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg," according to the pollster.

Trump's Response to DeSantis

On Wednesday, Trump reacted to DeSantis' latest attacks on the former president by citing previous polling data.

“Ron DeSanctimonious is running—without running! … But he should take a look at his Polls, which are crashing like few people have seen before,” Trump said. “That’s because he’s merely an average REPUBLICAN Governor who has great Public Relations, far better than deserved.”

According to a Monmouth University poll issued Tuesday, 41 percent of Republican voters want Trump to win the Republican nomination, putting him 14 points ahead of DeSantis' 27 percent. In a hypothetical battle, Trump would easily defeat DeSantis, according to more recent polling.

Historically, incumbents have had a higher chance of winning presidential elections. According to data from the U.S. Elections Project, since 1900, incumbents have won 19 out of 25 presidential elections, or about 76% of the time.

However, some political analysts argue that the state of the economy is the most important factor in determining whether an incumbent president will be re-elected. If the economy is doing well and unemployment is low, the incumbent is more likely to win.

Conversely, if the economy is struggling and unemployment is high, the incumbent may be more vulnerable to a challenger.

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