Former First Lady Michelle Obama won a CPAC straw poll that asked who conservatives think will be the Democrat nominee even though President Joe Biden is running for re-election and has won primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

A majority of those polled, 56%, do not believe Biden will be the nominee for 2024. 47% said they think it will be Obama.

In contrast, only 6% said they think Vice President Kamala Harris will be the nominee.

That was even less than California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), who got 32% but isn't the right gender or race for a Democrat candidate if Biden isn't the one.

The speculation

The speculation about an Obama candidacy started when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said on his Verdict podcast that he thinks there's a decent chance Democrats will decide to ditch a declining Biden at the Democrat National Convention and "parachute in" Michelle Obama.

Former White House and Pentagon official Douglas MacKinnon for the first time acknowledged that Obama might have the "it" factor to get elected, but in the context of both Biden and Harris declining to run, not in the context of Democrats deciding to replace them.

So far, though, Biden's poll numbers have done nothing but sink lower since he announced his re-election bid.

He is presenting as too old and doddering to run the free world for another four years, leaving the electorate no real choices other than former President Donald Trump, who is hated by most Democrats.

What are Democrats supposed to do?

Replacement looming

Faced with the prospect of losing to Trump despite four indictments and 91 total criminal charges pending against him, they've got to be thinking about replacing Biden.

It seems like a no-brainer that they would not want to put all their eggs in the Biden basket. Besides the age issue, voters don't think he's doing a good job, and he is under investigation for taking an estimated $24 million in payouts from foreign nationals to his family.

Best case scenario, he was scamming them and didn't actually do any favors, but the payouts explain why he got a Ukrainian prosecutor fired and why he's so soft on China all the time.

If Republicans can find a believable smoking gun that proves he's guilty of quid pro quo, it could make things even worse for his re-election hopes and increase the chances of seeing another Obama in the White House.

So far, Obama has said she doesn't want the job, but that could change with enough pressure and knowing that she doesn't have to deal with a protracted campaign.