The two most prominent Democrats jockeying for 2028 can't get out of their own way. A new NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters found that both Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris are deeply underwater in favorability, raising serious questions about whether either can credibly carry a national ticket.

Newsom landed at 27% favorable against 45% unfavorable. Harris fared slightly better in positive views at 34%, but her negatives climbed even higher: 51% of registered voters said they view her unfavorably.

These aren't numbers you spin. These are numbers you survive.

Democrats' Shallow Bench Gets Shallower

The Democratic Party is hunting for a 2028 standard-bearer, and the two names that keep surfacing are the same two names voters just told NBC they don't much care for. That's the state of the opposition: the best they've got is a governor whose own state is hemorrhaging residents and a former vice president who already lost a presidential race.

Among Democratic primary voters specifically, Harris still holds the edge, the NY Post reported. Sixty-seven percent of Democrats said they view her positively, compared to 52% for Newsom. She remains the party's sentimental favorite, which tells you more about the party than about her electability. A candidate who is underwater by 17 points with the general electorate doesn't become viable because her base still likes her.

The poll also asked primary voters whether they prefer a candidate aligned with the party or one more likely to win a general election. The tension embedded in that question is the Democratic Party's central problem heading into the next cycle: their base wants ideological purity, and the broader electorate wants something else entirely.

Neither Has Closed the Door

Harris hasn't explicitly said she'll run again, but she hasn't ruled it out either. She told podcaster Sharon McMahon in February that she "might" seek the presidency again. In October, she went further with the BBC: "I am not done."

She added that politics is "in my bones." For a politician sitting at 51% unfavorable, that's less a statement of intent than a warning to her own party.

Newsom, for his part, told CNN in February that a presidential bid would be a family decision. He recounted a conversation with one of his children that, depending on your sympathies, was either endearing or a very practiced piece of political staging:

"I said, 'No, we'll do [the] decision as a family.' He goes, 'You can't.' I said, 'Why?' He goes, 'I'm too young. You need to spend more time with us.'"

He followed it with the kind of line politicians deploy when they want to seem reluctant about the thing they clearly want to do: "I mean, how do you deal with that one?"

The California Post reached out to Newsom's office for comment. No response was included.

The California Problem

Both Harris and Newsom carry California on their backs, and not as an asset. Newsom is the state's chief executive, presiding over an era defined by:

• Population decline driven by cost of living and quality-of-life failures
• A homelessness crisis that defies the billions thrown at it
• An energy grid that struggles to keep the lights on
• A regulatory environment that has chased businesses to Texas, Florida, and Tennessee

Harris served as California's attorney general and senator before becoming vice president. Her national profile was built on the same progressive foundation that Newsom governs from. Neither candidate offers Democratic voters a credible pivot toward the center because neither has ever governed or campaigned from there.

This is the fundamental mismatch. Democratic primary voters may still feel warmly toward both figures, but the general electorate has already rendered its verdict. You don't recover from 45% and 51% unfavorables by doubling down on the same brand. You recover by being a different candidate, and neither Newsom nor Harris has shown any inclination to become one.

What 2028 Actually Looks Like

The NBC poll isn't just a bad day for two ambitious politicians. It's a snapshot of a party that hasn't processed its 2024 loss. Harris was the nominee. She lost. Her unfavorables have not recovered. The instinct to run her back suggests a party operating on nostalgia rather than strategy.

Newsom, meanwhile, has spent years positioning himself as the party's future, but registered voters nationally see a governor they don't like from a state they increasingly view as a cautionary tale. His 27% favorable rating means nearly three-quarters of voters either dislike him or don't care enough to have an opinion. That's not a launching pad. That's a crater.

Democrats can read polls. The question is whether they'll listen to this one, or whether the same institutional inertia that cleared the field for Harris in 2024 will do it again in 2028. If either of these two ends up as the nominee, Republicans won't need to run against a person. They'll run against a record.

And the numbers say that the record is already lost.