Nevada-based journalist offers stark warning for Biden ahead of 2024

November 15, 2023

There are storm clouds gathering over the White House, as polling shows signs of weakness for President Biden's re-election campaign in swing states like Nevada. 

A Nevada-based reporter, Jon Ralston, warns in the liberal magazine The Atlantic that economic woes could pave a path to victory for Trump in the state.

Ralston said he is "skeptical" of a New York Times-Siena College poll which found Trump leading Biden in Nevada by 10 points, but Democrats should "still be worried."

Fresh trouble for Biden

Nevada has been inching red in recent cycles, Ralston noted, pointing to the defeat of former governor (D) Steve Sisolak in 2022 and the razor-thin victory of Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto the same year.

Biden carried Nevada by a little over 2% in 2020, and his margin was smaller than Hillary Clinton's four years prior - making Nevada the only battleground state where Democrats performed worse in 2020 than 2016, Ralston noted.

The political sands are continuing to shift: across the country, Biden's lead with Hispanics is down to single digits, the New York Times poll found, and he fared worse in swing states with higher minority populations, like Nevada, only coming out ahead in the whitest of the bunch, Wisconsin.

The Times-Siena College poll found Hispanic voters - who make up 30 percent of Nevada's population - split down the middle between Trump and Biden.

No Republican presidential candidate has won Nevada since George W. Bush in 2004. But Nevada's casino-centric economy was slammed by COVID, and continuing economic pain under Biden could potentially hand the state over to Trump, Ralston wrote.

Trump makes inroads

Democrats in Nevada are pushing for a ballot initiative next year to protect abortion, an issue that has paid dividends for the party in recent election cycles.

But with inflation continuing to bite into voters' paychecks, the public isn't buying Biden's "Bidenomics" pitch.

If the election becomes a referendum on Biden and his economy instead, "Trump could plausibly win Nevada—and the Electoral College," Ralston warned.

Meanwhile, Democrats are concerned that Trump's increased access with Univision, the largest Spanish-language television network in the country, could further amplify his reach with Latino voters.

Trump invited executives from the historically left-leaning network to Mar-A-Lago last week and sat down for an interview with the channel.

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