New polls spell bad news for Harris

By 
 October 14, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris just received some bad news as the 2024 presidential election closes in.

The bad news, according to the New York Postis that Harris has fallen behind her rival, former President Donald Trump, in multiple recent polls.

The polls are from NBC News, ABC News/Ipsos, and CBS News/YouGov.

What the results suggest - if the polls are to be believed, which is always a legitimate question - is that Trump is becoming more and more favored to win the 2024 presidential election.

The numbers

Starting off with the NBC News poll, it shows the lead that Harris had on Trump - just a month ago - completely evaporating.

Last month, the pollster had Harris leading Trump by a score of 47% to 41%. Now, however, Trump is leading, 47% to 46%. Suffice it to say that this is a big turnaround.

Harris also lost most of her lead in the ABC News/Ipsos poll. Previously, Harris was leading Trump by a tally of 52% to 46%. But, now, Harris is only up by two percentage points, 50% to 48%.

It is a similar story with the CBS News/YouGov poll, which has Harris beating Trump 51% to 48%. Previously, Harris had a 52% to 48% lead, so she lost one percentage point, while Trump gained one.

The bottom line is that, with the election just weeks away, the polls all seem to be shifting in Trump's favor.

An overview

Despite this favorable changes in individuals polls for Trump, Harris, according to Real Clear Politics, is still on top when all recent polling is averaged.

Real Clear Politics' poll aggregator shows Harris with a 1.7 percentage point lead on Trump, 48.9% to 47.2%. This is a dropoff from the more than two percentage point lead on Trump that Harris had before the release of these new polls.

The presidential election , of course, is not decided by popular vote, but by the Electoral College, and, currently, Trump has the lead in many Electoral College forecasts, including Real Clear Politics'.

The outlet's "2024 RCP Electoral College Map" has Trump with a 219 to 215 Electoral Vote lead over Harris. 104 votes are still considered toss-ups. This would include battleground states, such as, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and others. The polls, for what it is worth, do suggest that Trump has the lead in just about all of the battleground states, barring Wisconsin.

The question now is whether things will continue trending in Trump's favor in the final weeks before the election and whether the polls will actually prove to be accurate. We will know the answer soon enough.

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