New York and California might be waving goodbye to serious political clout in the coming decade.

A new analysis from the Redistricting Network, based on U.S. Census figures, projects that after the 2030 census, New York will lose two House seats while California faces a steeper drop of four, totaling a combined loss of six seats.

Meanwhile, Sun Belt states like Texas and Florida are expected to gain four seats each, reflecting population booms with Texas seeing a 10% increase and Florida a 14% jump in representation. These shifts, driven by ongoing out-migration from high-cost blue states, could reshape influence in Congress and future presidential elections through Electoral College votes.

Population Trends Paint a Grim Picture

Critics point to a harsh reality: high taxes and soaring living costs are pushing residents out of New York and California, the New York Post reported. Experts note that since the 2020 pandemic, both states have remained down roughly 200,000 residents each as of 2025, while Texas gained 400,000 and Florida added 200,000. It’s a clear migration to red states with friendlier economic climates.

In New York City alone, less than a quarter of the half-million who fled during the pandemic had returned by 2025, per the Empire Center think tank. Upstate New York, still reeling from decades of blue-collar job losses, isn’t faring much better. The state eked out a mere 1,000-resident gain from July 2024 to July 2025, hitting a population of 20,002,427.

Then there’s the tax burden. A Citizens Budget Commission analysis of 2023 data shows New Yorkers pay about $3,000 more per capita in taxes than the next-highest state, North Dakota, and $7,000 more than low-tax states like Texas and Florida. It’s no wonder folks are packing their bags.

High Costs Fuel the Exodus

Let’s talk rent—New York City’s average sits at a jaw-dropping $5,686 per month as of December. If that doesn’t scream “get out while you can,” what does? It’s a brutal reminder of policies that seem to prioritize everything but affordability.

Experts aren’t mincing words about the fallout. “It’s the high tax structure, the increased cost of utility bills,” said Justin Wilcox, executive director of Upstate United. That kind of pressure doesn’t just hurt wallets; it empties communities.

Wilcox also noted, “We have been in decline relative to other states for quite some time.” It’s a slow bleed, folks, and New York’s historical loss of House seats—down from a 1940s peak of 45 to just 26 now—shows no sign of stopping. If trends hold, the state could have fewer residents in 2030 than in 2020.

Political Power Slips Away

Losing House seats isn’t just a numbers game; it’s a gut punch to influence. With Electoral College votes tied to congressional representation, New York and California’s shrinking clout could tilt presidential elections toward growing Sun Belt states. It’s a seismic shift that demands attention.

California, already down one seat after 2020 following a century of gains, faces a steeper cliff with four more losses projected. Meanwhile, New York hasn’t stemmed the tide of seat reductions since 1950. Both states are paying a steep price for economic policies that seem to repel rather than retain.

Look at the job market—New York still hasn’t recovered 368,000 jobs lost during the pandemic. Upstate’s economic stagnation, with no rebound from decades of manufacturing decline, only adds fuel to the fire. It’s a vicious cycle of loss.

What’s the Fix for Blue States?

So, what’s the takeaway? When states like Texas and Florida offer lower taxes and living costs, it’s no shock that Americans are voting with their feet. The data speaks louder than any campaign speech.

Policy matters, and the numbers don’t lie—New Yorkers shell out $5,000 more per person in taxes than the national average. That’s not just a statistic; it’s a family’s vacation, a down payment, or a year of groceries gone to bureaucracy. It’s time for a hard look at what’s driving people away.

The House remains capped at 435 seats, reapportioned every decade based on census data. If blue states don’t reverse these trends, their voices in Washington will keep shrinking. The question is whether leaders will prioritize affordability over ideology before it’s too late.