NRSC believes GOP can pick up red Senate seats, end up with 53 total

By 
 October 16, 2024

While this year's presidential election will go down as one of the most consequential in the history of the United States, other races will make an equally profound impact. 

Specifically, the balance of power in the U.S. Senate is still up for grabs, and if Republicans manage to turn the Senate red, it would be a massive gift to a potential Trump administration and likely a Republican-held House.

According to the New York Post, Republican Senate leadership -- most of it -- has expressed optimism in the party's ability to garner just enough seats in the upper chamber to take over.

Montana Sen. Steve Daines (R), who now heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), is confident that Republicans can flip enough seats red to end up with 53 seats and a solid majority.

What's going on?

Internal polling suggests that Republican senators are confident that they can pick up a total of 53 seats in the upper chamber, which would significantly change the game.

Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund, a PAC for the Senate leader, took a much different view on what could happen in November for Republicans in the upper chamber.

The Post noted:

On a number of races, the internal polls and the analysis are diametrically opposed, with Ohio providing the most vivid divergence.

Whereas the SLF read had Republican challenger Bernie Moreno down 6 points to Democratic perennial Sen. Sherrod Brown, the NRSC polling shows Moreno up 2 points against the free-spending incumbent.

The internal polling also shows former President Donald Trump performing quite well against Vice President Kamala Harris in states like Ohio.

The Post added:

Wisconsin is also in the NRSC pickup column, with Eric Hovde “narrowly ahead of Tammy Baldwin 48% to 47% in a head-to-head matchup” and tied with the long-serving senator in a multi-candidate mix.

The two groups definitely felt differently about the GOP's ability to pick up a seat in Michigan.

Optimistic about Rogers

Mike Rogers’ bid to pick up a Democrat-held seat in Michigan -- a key swing state -- was also a point of optimism for the NRSC.

"Rogers’s name awareness and image have continued to show improvement across the state — 40% say they are favorable of Rogers and 38% say unfavorable. He has maintained this marginal net positive image since September," said the NRSC.

"Rogers’s numbers are closing the gap between him and Slotkin and as these trends continue, we see a very attainable victory for our candidate," the NRSC wrote.

Only time will tell if Republicans can manage enough flips to change the balance of power in the upper chamber. Only time will tell.

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