Poll has Trump leading Biden in swing states

 July 9, 2023

A new poll has former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in the swing states in the 2024 race for the U.S. presidency. 

The poll comes from Echelon Insights. The pollster surveyed 1,020 likely voters during a period from June 26 to June 29, 2023. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

The pollster asked participants a wide range of questions, including whether they would vote for Trump or President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election were that election to be held today.

The pollster also threw third-party candidate Cornel West into the mix.

The national results

What Echelon Insights found is that, if the 2024 presidential election were to be held today, Trump may have a slight edge over Biden nationally.

The poll puts Trump at 43% and Biden at 42%. Third place - or 11% - went to "unsure." And, West managed to garner 4% support.

It is worth pointing out that this result is well within the poll's 3.9 percentage point margin of error. So, theoretically, Biden could actually be ahead of Trump, at least on this poll.

It is also worth pointing out that these are the result of the survey taken with a third-party candidate. When the third-party candidate is removed and it is just Trump versus Biden, Biden has a one percentage point lead over Trump.

Trump v. Biden in the swing states

The pollster also narrowed down the results to battleground states, and these results tell a different story from the national results.

Echelon Insights found that, were the 2024 presidential election to be held today, Trump would be expected to beat Biden in swing states by a score of 48% to 40%. Here, 10% are unsure, and 3% chose West.

In contrast to the national results, Trump, in swing states, is beating Biden by a big enough margin to overcome the poll's margin of error. In other words, the poll's results indicate that Trump would be expected to win the swing states if the 2024 presidential election were to be held today.

Some more polling

According to Real Clear Politic's poll tracker, it does indeed appear almost certain that Trump will once again face Biden in a race for the presidency in 2024.

Currently, Real Clear Politics has Trump up 32.1 percentage points, on average, on his next closest Republican rival. The site has Biden up, on average, 49.6 percentage points over his next close Democratic rival.

Real Clear Politics, however, indicates that the Trump versus Biden matchup is a toss-up. Currently, Trump, on average, leads Biden in this matchup by a mere 0.6 percentage points.

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