Poll shows Trump would beat Michelle Obama by same margin as he would Biden if she were Dem nominee

 April 2, 2024

There have been rumors and speculation for months that former first lady Michelle Obama would be a last-minute replacement as the Democratic nominee for President Joe Biden, who most Americans believe is too old and mentally diminished to serve another term, and who many Democrats fear will lose in a rematch against former President Donald Trump.

Yet, a new poll just revealed that Obama would fare no better against Trump than Biden would, as the presumptive Republican nominee bests both Democrats by a three-point margin, according to Breitbart.

Of course, the entire point seems moot, as the former first lady has repeatedly made it clear, as recently as early March, that she will not be mounting a presidential run -- at least not during this 2024 cycle.

Trump beats Biden and Obama by same margin

The Daily Mail teamed up with J.L. Partners to survey 1,000 likely voters and, among other things, asked those respondents who would win hypothetical matchups between former President Trump versus President Biden as well as former first lady Obama.

Against Biden, Trump would prevail by three points, 46-43%, but would also defeat Obama by the same margin, 47-44%, if she were to be the Democratic nominee.

"Some have been touting an emergency parachute for Biden for some time: draft Michelle Obama," J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson told the Daily Mail.

"But it turns out voters are no more keen to vote for Michelle over Trump than they are for Biden, with Trump beating her overall and even with Independents," he added. "It was never very realistic, but this poll puts paid to the idea she can be any kind of saving force for the Democrats."

Obama "will not be running" in the 2024 election

The Daily Mail noted that while former first lady Obama has on several occasions expressed concern over the 2024 election and the possibility that voters may select former President Trump to serve a second term in the White House, she has also expressed that she, personally, has no intentions of intervening in the race to stop that from happening.

Nearly one month ago, Obama's communications director, Crystal Carson, told NBC News in a statement, "As former First Lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president."

"Mrs. Obama supports President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ re-election campaign," the spokeswoman added.

Trump wins over Biden when third-party candidates are added as options

Interestingly enough, while the new Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll showed former President Trump defeating President Biden by three points in a head-to-head matchup, that hypothetical margin of victory increases to four points when likely third-party candidates are added to the mix as options for voters.

In a Trump vs. Biden election that also includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and progressive independent Cornel West, Trump would prevail over Biden by a score of 43-39%, which suggests that those three third-party candidates will draw away more voter support from Biden than they will from Trump.

As for how that compares with other polls, the RealClearPolling average of national general election polls currently has Trump in the lead over Biden by just one point, 46.5-45.5%, which seems to confirm that the race is exceptionally tight and could be substantially impacted by the addition of other candidates for voters to choose from on the ballot.

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