New NYT poll shows Trump with solid leads in 5 of 6 battleground states, support for Biden faltering

 May 14, 2024

President Joe Biden just received some abysmal polling results that showed him losing to former President Donald Trump in five states that were critical to his 2020 victory, Fox News reported.

The polls, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, plus the Philadelphia Inquirer, showed Trump leading Biden -- in some cases by rather substantial margins  -- in five out of the six key battleground states: Arizona (+7), Georgia (+10), Michigan (+7), Nevada (+12), and Pennsylvania (+3), with Biden prevailing in only Wisconsin (+2).

Those results were attributed to several significant factors, including voter discontent over the economy and Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, as well as a marked reduction in support for the incumbent among voter blocs that Democrats typically rely upon for victory, such as young voters and minorities.

Trump leading in most of the battleground states

The New York Times reported Monday that its recent polls revealed that a "yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition."

As noted above, Trump led Biden by wide margins in five of six battleground states among registered voters and maintained that lead, albeit with narrower margins, among likely voters. Trump even still stayed ahead of his rival when additional third party and independent candidates were thrown into the mix as options for voters disenchanted with both major party candidates.

And lest anybody try to dismiss these results as outliers, The Times noted that they were largely similar to those in a November poll of the same six swing states.

"Since then, the stock market has gained 25 percent, Mr. Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan has started, and the Biden campaign has unleashed tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the battleground states," the outlet observed. "The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump, or quelled the electorate’s discontent."

Biden's declining support among key Democratic constituencies

As for the "erosion of support" among key Democratic voting blocs, including young voters, black voters, and Hispanic voters, The Times reported that Biden and Trump "are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters -- a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964."

The report went on to say that "Trump’s strength among young and nonwhite voters has at least temporarily upended the electoral map," though it was noted that Biden "remains within striking distance" and has maintained solid support among "older and white voters" who less apt to demand fundamental changes like young and minority voters.

To be sure, The Times added plenty of caveats to its findings in the polls and surmised that Biden still had a chance to catch and surpass Trump -- primarily if the economy continued to improve over the next six months, if Trump's support among minorities wasn't as solid as it appeared, and if the "irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race" that currently support Trump had a change of heart once the election drew near.

Trump leading in most other polls, too

According to RealClearPolling, former President Trump currently leads President Biden by just 1.2 points overall in the average of national general election polls.

RCP also shows Trump ahead of Biden in all six of the battleground states polled by The Times as well as North Carolina, with margins that ranged from less than a single point, such as 0.8 in Michigan, to more than six points in Nevada.

The Western Journal reported on the stunning poll results and how The Times tried to make excuses on Biden's behalf, but noted that the outlet "was correct in pointing out that things can change -- even if its motivation was slightly less than honest. And no one sane would think that Trump is guaranteed a victory in November because he's winning poll results in May."

"But what the results do show, indisputably, is that the establishment media's attacks, the Democratic Party's lawfare, and the tens of millions of dollars the Biden re-election campaign is spending aren't having the effect liberals have hoped for," the Journal observed. "And it has to be galling for The Times to admit it."

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