Despite his terrible track record, Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom is broadly considered by most political analysts to be a top contender for his party's presidential nomination in 2028.

Unfortunately for him, a new poll shows that Newsom would be decisively defeated in a hypothetical matchup against Vice President JD Vance, the current heir apparent to President Donald Trump's MAGA base and frontrunner for the Republican nomination, Breitbart reported.

Newsom was not alone in being hypothetically beaten by Vance in the next presidential election cycle, however, as the survey also showed that the vice president would also win against two other likely top Democratic contenders, progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Newsom would lose to Vance, as would Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg

Just this week, Emerson College polled 1,400 U.S. voters and asked them who would win in hypothetical 2028 matchups involving VP Vance versus a trio of likely top Democratic candidates.

In the matchup between Vance and Gov. Newsom, the vice president prevailed over the governor, 45-42%, with 13% undecided between the two.

Vance also came out ahead when matched up against Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and former Sec. Buttigieg, as he defeated the New York congresswoman 44-41%, with 15% undecided, as well as the ex-Biden Cabinet member 44-43%, with 13% undecided.

Notably absent from that collection of top Democratic contenders for the 2028 nomination was former Vice President Kamala Harris, the party's failed 2024 nominee, but that was likely due to all signs and predictions pointing to her forgoing another presidential bid to instead run to be California's next governor in 2026.

Emerson College Polling's Executive Director Spencer Kimball said of the results, "A key takeaway from the ballot tests is that about 13% of the electorate remains persuadable, while the other 87% have already settled on a party preference."

All indications are that Newsom is running

There is virtually no doubt that Gov. Newsom will be running for the 2028 Democratic nomination, with the only real debate being where he is ranked in the lineup of likely contenders, with The Hill placing him mid-pack in an April Top 10 ranking.

All indications are that he will mount a primary campaign -- which may have already quietly begun -- as he is conveniently term-limited out of the governorship next year just in time for the presidential primary season to begin in earnest.

Newsom has made it a point in recent months to travel to some of the early-voting primary states, and he has worked to both establish himself on the national scene and firm up his standing with the left-leaning Democratic base, conversely by portraying himself as a moderate while conversating with prominent figures on the right but also by publicly tangling with President Trump and VP Vance.

The governor's presumptive run will be hampered, however, by his track record of leftist policies and the dumpster fire status of his state, to say nothing of the broad perception many Americans have of him as an inauthentic and too-slick elitist Californian.

Polling shows Newsom is a frontrunner

Nevertheless, Gov. Newsom is a top contender to be the next Democratic nominee, as shown in the RacetotheWH's national average for 2028 Democratic primary polls, which place him in either second or third place, depending on whether former VP Harris runs or not, with around 12.7% support.

Absent Harris, Newsom trails only former Sec. Buttigieg, and leads other likely contenders like Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, among more than half a dozen other possible candidates who garner anywhere from 2-4% support from the Democratic voter base.