Polls continue to raise concerns about Biden's 2024 chances

October 7, 2023

Democrats continue to be worried about President Joe Biden's recent, disappointing poll results. 

This is according to a new report from USA Today's Joey Garrison.

Garrison quotes pollster Frank Luntz as arguing that the Democrats are justifiably panicked about the poll results.

Luntz, referring to Democratic panic, said, "On a 0 to 10 scale, it's an 11." Luntz also described the poll results as "a nuclear red light flashing" for the Democrats.

The polls

The reader may remember a particularly troubling poll for Biden that came out in mid-September. It came from the Washington Post and ABC News, and what the poll showed was that former President Donald Trump has a 10 percentage point lead over Biden in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup.

Since then, several other polls have been released, and, none of them have Trump up by this wide of a margin.

Some polls, such as this one from Morning Consult, have Trump and Biden tied. Other polls, such as this one from The Messenger and HarrisX, have Trump ahead of Biden by three percentage points. And, other polls, including this one from NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist University, even have Biden up by two percentage points.

That being said, the vast majority of the current polls have either Trump leading or Trump and Biden tied. The Real Clear Politics average, thus, has Trump up on Biden by 1.1 percentage points.

Perhaps even more important than this is the momentum of the polls, which, as of late, has clearly been in Trump's direction.

The problem

It is not just the fact that Trump is pulling ahead of Biden in the polls. It is the context in which this is occurring.

Luntz explains, "With Donald Trump indicted so many times and in such legal trouble, for Joe Biden to be only tied, and in some polls trailing, is a shock to the system . . ."

Later, Luntz added that what the polling results show is that " voters are willing to forgive Trump for everything and it says voters are not willing to forgive Biden for anything."

The truth of this statement is questionable. If it really was true that the voters are "willing to forgive" everything that Trump does but are "not willing to forgive" anything that Biden does, then surely Biden would be trailing Trump in the polls by a much wider margin than he currently is.

That being said, it is probably best to take all of this with a sizable grain of salt. As recent history has shown us, there is no guarantee that the polls or the analysis of the polls is correct.

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