Polls suggest Republicans could flip multiple Senate seats this November

 January 2, 2024

A survey aggregate maintained by the website Real Clear Polling puts former President Donald Trump 2.3% ahead of President Joe Biden in the national popular vote.

Yet while the presidential race appears to be close, control of the Senate seems increasingly likely to flip. 

GOP only needs to gain one seat if party wins the presidency

That's according to a recent report from CNN which noted that of the top 10 Senate seats most likely to change hands, seven are currently held by Democrats.

What's more, an eighth seat is held by Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Despite being elected as a Democrat in 20218, Sinema began sitting as an independent in 2022 and has not yet said whether or not she plans to seek another term.

CNN noted that if Republicans manage to capture the White House then the party will only need to flip a single seat in order to regain control of the chamber.

West Virginia is considered to be the state in which Republicans have the strongest chance of victory, as longtime Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announced this year that he will not run for reelection.

Montana Democrat regarded as being vulnerable

Montana represents another potential pickup as incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester was narrowly reelected six years ago in a state which Donald Trump carried by more than 16 points.

Tester is being challenged by retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, who has released an ad which accuses the senator and President Biden "too liberal to keep us safe."

However, CNN pointed out that Montana Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale could enter the race as well despite having lost to Tester in 2018.

Poll gives Democrats reason to be nervous in Nevada

Republicans have also set their sights on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, where Trump bested Biden by an eight-point margin.

Two years later, Republican Sen. J.D. Vance beat Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan by six and a half points following the resignation of Republican Sen. Rob Portman.

While CNN ranked Montana and Ohio as being the most likely states to flip based on fundraising figures and historical data, another potential Senate pickup for Republicans could come in Nevada.

Although Biden beat Trump by two points in the Silver State, a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in late October had Trump 11 points ahead of Biden as significant numbers of Latino voters and college educated whites seem to have turned on the president.

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