First son Hunter Biden was scheduled to begin trial this week on federal tax charges in California but stunned everyone by suddenly pleading guilty to all counts right before the proceedings were to begin.

Now facing the prospect of a lengthy prison sentence and hefty fines from this tax case plus a prior conviction on federal gun charges in Delaware in June, the only real hope for relief for Hunter is a pardon or commutation from his father, President Joe Biden, according to a New York Post op-ed from law professor Jonathan Turley.

That could be a problem, though, as the president and his White House have been adamant for months that the elder Biden would not bestow any executive clemency on his troubled and criminally convicted son, and repeated that claim again following the guilty plea.

Hunter Biden pleads guilty to tax charges

On Thursday, CNN reported that Hunter Biden surprised the court and prosecutors by moving to change his initial not guilty plea to guilty just before the jury selection process was set to begin on his multitude of federal tax law violation charges.

Biden acknowledged his guilt on nine charges that included tax evasion, filing fraudulent returns, and failure to pay what he owed -- ostensibly to avoid further embarrassment for his family as prosecutors were set to unveil during the trial the extent of his scandalous and extravagant lifestyle of drug abuse and sex and dubious foreign business dealings.

The convicted felon first son now faces the potential of up to 17 years in prison and fines exceeding $1 million at a sentencing hearing in mid-December. That will follow a sentencing hearing in mid-November for his prior conviction in Delaware, where he faces up to 25 years in prison and similarly hefty fines for his prior violations of federal gun laws.

Hunter Biden's "game of chicken" with prosecutors failed

In his op-ed for the Post, Turley observed with astonishment how Hunter Biden had essentially played a "game of chicken" with himself and prosecutors and went "careening toward a cliff" by forcing prosecutors to bring his criminal matters to trial when they could have been handled more quietly with an earlier plea deal, only to then "hit the brakes as the trial was beginning."

In doing so, he "succeeded in putting himself in the worst possible position for a plea. He waited until he had little to trade and reportedly did not even inform the prosecutors of his decision." Now, instead of a sweetheart deal with minimal or no prison time, he faces the possibility of being sentenced to serve decades behind bars.

"This decision may still be based more on political than legal calculations. Hunter was almost certain to be convicted. But it would have taken time as his father’s administration (and pardon authority) wanes," Turley wrote. "If Hunter still hopes for a presidential commutation or pardon, the chances of such executive action is dramatically improved after a sentencing."

White House still insists no pardon or commutation will be granted

There's one major flaw in that calculation, however -- the repeated insistence from both President Biden and the White House that the president will not grant his son a pardon or commute a potential prison sentence.

Indeed, during a press gaggle on Thursday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre reiterated that the answer continued to be "No" to questions about a possible pardon or commutation.

Yet, per NewsNation, most Americans don't believe that claim, and political analysts from across the partisan spectrum think that it is highly likely that Hunter Biden will be pardoned or have his sentence commuted, whether by his father before he leaves office or by the next president, be it Vice President Kamala Harris or even former President Donald Trump.

A pardon from Biden on his way out "would not be a surprise"

"If President Biden does violate his promise to not pardon Hunter, it would not be a surprise for many," Turley wrote in his Post op-ed. "In 2022, I wrote that the President could resign or withdraw as a candidate and pardon Hunter."

"I referred to this as 'break-the-glass option': 'He would end his political career with an act as a father, which some would condemn but most would understand,'" the professor added.