Hold onto your hats, folks—Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election is shaping up to be a real nail-biter.

In a race to fill the seat left vacant by former Rep. Mark Green, Republican Matt Van Epps squares off against Democrat Aftyn Behn in a district that’s long been a Republican stronghold, yet recent polls show a surprisingly tight contest.

This special election comes after Green stepped down from Congress in July, leaving a vacancy in a district with a deep red history.

Tight Race in a Republican Stronghold

Voting is set for Tuesday, and the stakes couldn’t be higher as both parties pour resources into this unexpected battleground.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who represented this district for 16 years and routinely secured over 70% of the vote, recently weighed in on the race during an appearance on Fox News’s The Big Weekend Show.

While she predicted a win for Van Epps, her hesitation to call it a landslide speaks volumes about the shifting dynamics at play.

Blackburn’s Measured Confidence in Van Epps

“It is going to be a victory for Matt Van Epps,” Blackburn stated, adding, “This is a Republican district, Republicans will show up, they’re going to vote, Matt is going to be there to support President Trump.”

Her confidence, though, seems tempered by reality—polls and election trackers are painting a picture of a race far closer than conservatives would like.

Inside Elections downgraded the district’s rating from “safe Republican” to merely “lean Republican,” while a survey by Emerson College Polling and The Hill shows Van Epps at 48% and Behn at 46%.

Democratic Push Meets Trump’s Endorsement

Adding fuel to the fire, Democratic groups have funneled significant funding into Behn’s campaign, hoping to capitalize on what they see as an opening in this traditionally conservative area.

On the flip side, President Trump threw his weight behind Van Epps with a powerful endorsement on Sunday, urging supporters to turn out in force.

“Do not take this Race for granted,” Trump declared. “The Radical Left Democrats are spending a fortune to beat one of the best Candidates we’ve ever had, Matt Van Epps!”

High Stakes and Historical Context

Trump’s warning about Democratic spending isn’t just rhetoric—it’s a reminder of the GOP’s struggles in recent off-year elections in 2025, making this race a critical test of conservative momentum.

Historically, this district has been a safe bet for Republicans, with Green himself winning between 59% and 69% of the vote in his three campaigns, following Blackburn’s dominant runs.

Yet, if the polls are to be believed, we’re witnessing a rare moment where progressive enthusiasm and heavy investment might just make conservatives sweat—a scenario that’s both frustrating and a wake-up call for those who value traditional values over the ever-encroaching progressive agenda.