Trump expected to win all of Nevada's delegates

 February 2, 2024

In Nevada, the path to securing Republican delegates for former President Trump appears virtually assured, even with the primary contest days away.

This strategic move by Trump allies within Nevada's Republican Party, opting to proceed with caucuses despite a state-sanctioned primary occurring two days earlier, aims to create an environment where Trump faces minimal competition.

The explanation

Mike Noble, an independent pollster specializing in the Southwest region, described this maneuver as a clear strategy to position Trump without significant challengers.

The state GOP's decision to maintain its caucuses on Feb. 8, while a state-run primary is scheduled for Feb. 6, underscores this approach.

According to a 2021 Nevada law, a state-run primary is mandated if more than one candidate files for president. However, the state GOP emphasized that candidates cannot participate in both contests, essentially signaling an advantageous situation for Trump.

Haley's problem

Notably, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley is participating in the Feb. 6 primary, which does not allocate delegates.

"This was clearly a move to basically set up where Trump really had no competition," Mike Noble, an independent pollster who specializes in the Southwest region, told Axios. "The best way to describe it is the fix is in for the Don in Nevada."

The caucus system, known for energizing fervent supporters, plays into Trump's strength. In the 2016 Nevada Republican caucuses, Trump secured a substantial victory, surpassing the second-place candidate by a significant margin.

The caucuses provide candidates with an opportunity to mobilize their dedicated supporters and showcase their organizational prowess.

Beyond Nevada

Beyond Nevada, Trump's advisers have been actively collaborating with party activists to reshape delegate selection rules in his favor.

In California, a pivotal state with the most delegates, a recent rule change allows a candidate to claim all 169 delegates with a majority primary win, abandoning the previous proportional allocation based on congressional districts. Other states, including Idaho, Louisiana, and Michigan, have also adjusted their selection rules.

In essence, this strategic maneuvering positions Trump to secure delegates, while Nikki Haley may not receive recognition for a win in the primaries, according to Noble.

The unfolding dynamics in Nevada reflect an important controversy, though Trump is expected to win the GOP nomination in Nevada and beyond by a large margin. Trump previously won in Iowa and New Hampshire, and currently leads polls in Haley's South Carolina by double digits.

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