Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground with Hispanic Americans, a key voting demographic.

The New York Post reports that this fact has been proven in recent polling.

This could be a huge blow for Vice President Kamala Harris and her fellow Democrats, as we head into the 2024 presidential election.

This is because, as will be demonstrated, Hispanic Americans have been vital to the Democrats' success in elections.

The polls

To be clear, the polls do not show that Trump is leading Harris with regard to the Hispanic voting demographic. Rather, the polls show that Trump, since the last presidential election, has significantly gained Hispanic support, while the Democrats have lost such support.

Per the Post: 

Polls show Trump is doing better with Hispanics today than he was in 2020. The Cook Political Report’s demographic polling average estimates Kamala Harris leads Trump by roughly 12 points, an 11-point drop from [President Joe] Biden’s margin.

Biden, in the 2020 presidential election won the Hispanic vote by about 23 percentage points. This was a disappointing result, and the polls suggest that Trump and Republicans have held on to these gains - and even improved on them - between then and now.

The Post adds:

It’s also telling that Trump’s share of the Hispanic vote has not dropped following Harris’ entry into the race. While Harris is polling about 5 points higher than Biden was when he dropped out, Trump’s 41.9% of Latinos is statistically identical to the 41.8% he was receiving at Biden’s departure. Even one of the more favorable surveys for Harris shows she’s slipping among Hispanics.

Harris, it has to be noted, has also been slipping with voters across the board.

Background

To help put the importance of all of this into perspective, the Post reports that Democrats have been winning the Hispanic American vote since 1972.

The outlet reports:

Democrats have won the Hispanic vote in every presidential election since 1972. With the exception of 2004, Democratic nominees since 1992 had always beaten their Republican counterpart by at least 35 points with Hispanic voters.

This changed, however, with Trump, and the Post believes that it knows why.

It explains:

Their communities are especially affected by the massive influx of migrants. Most communities where migrants cross are heavily Hispanic, and surely a large number of those caught and released settle in Latino neighborhoods, where the people and language are more familiar. This means Hispanics more than any other ethnic group likely bear the brunt of the migrants’ disruption. Crime that occurs happens on their streets. The jobs migrants try to get are the same ones many Hispanic citizens also hold and covet.

This is certainly something to keep an eye on as the 2024 election draws ever closer.