Trump lead over Biden growing six months out from election

 May 28, 2024

Former President Donald Trump's lead over President Joe Biden has grown in the last month or two, with Trump leading Biden in nearly all national polls taken in May 2024.

Memorial Day 2024 saw Trump eight points over Biden in the latest Harris/X poll, five points ahead in Echelon Insights, and one point ahead in YouGov. FiveThirtyEight has Trump 1.5% ahead of Biden in an average of polls.

Last year most polls had Biden ahead by one or two points.

Looking at Biden's approval numbers, he went from 38% in 2023 to 35% today.

Trump gaining

In addition to Biden losing ground with voters, Trump is gaining ground in their collective viewpoint.

An April New York/Siena College poll, 42% said Trump's presidency was "mostly good for America, while only 25% said the same thing about Biden.

Compared to 2016, 11% more voters thought Trump was a "safe choice."

The number of voters who think Trump handled the economy well and left the country better off was also up 9 to 10%.

Democrats scrambling

These numbers are not a reason for Trump or Republicans to get complacent for even a minute.

Democrats will be trying to find or create a "black swan" moment that could make voters unwilling to vote for Trump, and there are plenty of opportunities for that to happen even without further Democrat intervention.

Let's face it: Democrats and their allies have already engaged in a tremendous amount of election interference by indicting Trump four different times--the first time a former president has ever been charged with a crime.

Since that didn't really work, they will be forced to keep trying top prop up Biden and tear down Trump.

Democrats that form the administrative state may already be indicating that they are prepared for a Biden loss by trying to put rules in place that would prevent Trump from rolling back administrative rules and Biden executive orders if he gains power in November.

Trump has vowed to fire as much as he can of the administrative state to take away their ability to govern by administrative rules, something that was never provided for in the U.S. Constitution.

" A free people [claim] their rights, as derived from the laws of nature."
Thomas Jefferson
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