New poll shows Trump leading Biden in seven swing states and on most important issues like the economy and immigration

 March 2, 2024

A new poll was just released that was full of mostly bad news for President Joe Biden ahead of his likely November rematch against former President Donald Trump.

That new poll showed Trump with an overall lead over Biden as well as in all seven of the most important swing states that tend to decide national elections, according to The Hill.

The poll also found that most voters believe Biden is "too old" to serve a second term in office -- though a substantial portion believed Trump is too "dangerous" to be president again -- and voters clearly favored Trump over Biden when it came to handling the most important issues the nation faces, including the economy, border security and illegal immigration, and foreign policies amid growing armed conflicts around the globe.

Trump leads Biden overall and in all seven swing states

Bloomberg News and Morning Consult recently teamed up to survey 4,955 registered voters across the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and overall, those voters picked former President Trump to prevail over President Biden in November's election by a margin of 48-43%.

Even when several third-party candidates were included as options -- Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Jill Stein, and Cornel West -- Trump still came out on top over Biden, 43-37%, with only Kennedy drawing any measurable support at 9%.

The Hill observed that Trump maintained his lead over Biden in the seven individual swing states, though the margin varied somewhat, with Trump's best state being North Carolina, where he held a nine-point lead over his incumbent rival.

In the four states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, each of which was won by Biden in 2020, Trump held a roughly six-point lead over his likely Democratic competitor, but that lead fell to four points in Wisconsin and just two points in Michigan.

Those results aren't too far off from RealClearPolling's average of national general election polls, which currently shows former President Trump with a 2.3% lead over President Biden, 47.3-45%.

The findings in the key swing states are fairly similar, too, as RCP has Trump up by 5.5 points in Arizona, 6.5 points in Georgia, 3.6 points in Michigan, 7.7 points in Nevada, and one point in Wisconsin, though Biden has eked out a 0.8 point lead in Pennsylvania.

Trump "dangerous" but still leads on most issues over "too old" Biden

According to Bloomberg News, roughly 80% of voters believe that President Biden, at 81, is "too old" and his health is too suspect for him to serve another term as president -- a problem that voters don't similarly ascribe to Trump, even though he's only about four years younger than his rival.

Trump, however, faces some problems of his own in that new poll, as a majority of voters believe that he poses a "dangerous" threat to the country and democracy if re-elected, and nearly half of all voters in each of the swing states indicated that they'd likely not vote for him if he were to be convicted before the election of any of four criminal cases against him.

That said, if Biden's age and Trump's legal woes are set aside and voters focus only on the major issues facing the country, it seems likely that Trump will ultimately prevail to be the nation's president once again.

Indeed, the top two issues far and away for voters are the economy and immigration, and on both of those -- and for each of several subcategories beneath them -- Trump was the preferred candidate over Biden as the best choice to effectively manage and improve those issues.

As for some of the other issues that voters deem less important, Trump leads on things like handling crime, foreign policy, and even guns, while Biden leads on things like protecting abortion rights, healthcare, and benefits for seniors like Medicare and Social Security.

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